- Arsenal is a -1.5-goal favorite against Wolves.
- Arsenal earned a 2-1 win in the last meeting, their fifth straight win over Wolves.
- Why bettors should look to a Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s clash.
Seeking a recovery from their 2-0 home defeat to Aston Villa last weekend, Arsenal travel to the English Midlands to face Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Manager Mikel Arteta’s side suffered only their fifth league defeat of the season last weekend and now look to beat a Wolves side they beat 2-1 in the reverse fixture.
As for Wolves, they captured a 2-2 draw last weekend at Nottingham Forest to extend their winless run to four games.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Wolves
- Arsenal Moneyline: -275
- Wolves Moneyline: +700
- Draw Moneyline: +425
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-175/+120)
EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Wolves
Same Game Parlay: Arsenal Moneyline & Over 2.5 Goals (-120)
Although Arsenal faces a midweek trip to Germany, this qualifies as a great buy-low spot on the Gooners.
Two systems contribute to my thinking for this Same Game Parlay.
First is that good teams off a loss are exceptional at winning outright when they won the previous meeting.
Since the 2021-22 season, favorites with a winning percentage higher than 45% are 36-12 SU, assuming three other factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was between +1 and +5
- The team’s previous game margin was between -1 and -5
- The closing moneyline is between -300 and +135
Over a longer time period – since the 2012-13 season, to be exact – those teams are 117-51 SU.
Further, Arsenal are 7-2 SU this season following a non-win under Mikel Arteta and 25-15 in that spot for Arteta’s entire tenure.
As for the total, history says it’s wise to look at overs in matches featuring a home underdog.
Since the 2021-22 season, the over is 60.3% when the away team averages north of 1.7 goals per game, and the total is higher than 2.5.
Put simply, I don’t know how Wolves’ defense stops Arsenal.
Last weekend, they conceded 2.27 post-shot expected goals to Nottingham Forest. Over their last five league matches, they’ve allowed 1.64 post-shot xG, excluding penalties.
However, Arsenal represent a stark upgrade in competition. The last time these sides met, Arsenal created 2.9 expected goals and 1.6 psxG, per fbref.com.
At the same time, Wolves are absolutely capable of scoring at home.
They’ve failed to score in only one home match this season and get an Arsenal defense on short rest.
Add in the return to health for strikers Hee-Chan Hwang and Matheus Cunha, and I expect Wolves can contribute to the over at home.
Arsenal Form
April 17 at Bayern Munich: 0-1, L (Champions League)
April 14 vs. Aston Villa: 0-2, L
April 9 vs. Bayern Munich: 2-2, D (Champions League)
April 6 at Brighton: 3-0, W
April 3 vs. Luton Town: 2-0, W
Wolves Form
April 13 vs. Nottingham Forest: 2-2, D
April 6 vs. West Ham United: 1-2, L
April 2 at Burnley: 1-1, D
March 30 at Aston Villa: 0-2, L
March 16 vs. Coventry City: 2-3, L (FA Cup)
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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