Arsenal vs. Wolves Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Arsenal's manager Mikel Arteta speaks to the players while Gabriel Jesus, right, gestures to the crowd during the English Premier League soccer match between Arsenal and Brighton and Hove Albion at the Emirates Stadium in London, Sunday, Dec. 17, 2023.
(Ian Walton/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 17, 2024, 5:01 PM
  • Arsenal is a -1.5-goal favorite against Wolves.
  • Arsenal earned a 2-1 win in the last meeting, their fifth straight win over Wolves.
  • Why bettors should look to a Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s clash.

Seeking a recovery from their 2-0 home defeat to Aston Villa last weekend, Arsenal travel to the English Midlands to face Wolverhampton Wanderers. 

Manager Mikel Arteta’s side suffered only their fifth league defeat of the season last weekend and now look to beat a Wolves side they beat 2-1 in the reverse fixture. 

As for Wolves, they captured a 2-2 draw last weekend at Nottingham Forest to extend their winless run to four games. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Wolves

  • Arsenal Moneyline: -275
  • Wolves Moneyline: +700
  • Draw Moneyline: +425
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-175/+120)

EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Wolves

Same Game Parlay: Arsenal Moneyline & Over 2.5 Goals (-120)

Although Arsenal faces a midweek trip to Germany, this qualifies as a great buy-low spot on the Gooners. 

Two systems contribute to my thinking for this Same Game Parlay. 

First is that good teams off a loss are exceptional at winning outright when they won the previous meeting. 

Since the 2021-22 season, favorites with a winning percentage higher than 45% are 36-12 SU, assuming three other factors:

  • The previous head-to-head result was between +1 and +5
  • The team’s previous game margin was between -1 and -5
  • The closing moneyline is between -300 and +135

Over a longer time period – since the 2012-13 season, to be exact – those teams are 117-51 SU. 

Further, Arsenal are 7-2 SU this season following a non-win under Mikel Arteta and 25-15 in that spot for Arteta’s entire tenure. 

As for the total, history says it’s wise to look at overs in matches featuring a home underdog. 

Since the 2021-22 season, the over is 60.3% when the away team averages north of 1.7 goals per game, and the total is higher than 2.5. 

Put simply, I don’t know how Wolves’ defense stops Arsenal. 

Last weekend, they conceded 2.27 post-shot expected goals to Nottingham Forest. Over their last five league matches, they’ve allowed 1.64 post-shot xG, excluding penalties. 

However, Arsenal represent a stark upgrade in competition. The last time these sides met, Arsenal created 2.9 expected goals and 1.6 psxG, per 

At the same time, Wolves are absolutely capable of scoring at home. 

They’ve failed to score in only one home match this season and get an Arsenal defense on short rest. 

Add in the return to health for strikers Hee-Chan Hwang and Matheus Cunha, and I expect Wolves can contribute to the over at home. 

Arsenal Form 

April 17 at Bayern Munich: 0-1, L (Champions League)

April 14 vs. Aston Villa: 0-2, L

April 9 vs. Bayern Munich: 2-2, D (Champions League)

April 6 at Brighton: 3-0, W

April 3 vs. Luton Town: 2-0, W

Wolves Form

April 13 vs. Nottingham Forest: 2-2, D

April 6 vs. West Ham United: 1-2, L

April 2 at Burnley: 1-1, D

March 30 at Aston Villa: 0-2, L

March 16 vs. Coventry City: 2-3, L (FA Cup)

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

Soccer Odds at BetMGM

With around-the-clock matches throughout the year, there’s never a break in soccer betting action at BetMGM.

You can view updated soccer odds for the Champions League, MLS, World Cup, and other leagues and events around the world.

Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome offer — to start betting. And always check your new account for updated sportsbook promos and bonuses.

Visit the sportsbook today to place your bet online!

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.