- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Bournemouth.
- These sides played to a 2-2 draw at the Vitality Stadium in the last meeting.
- Why bettors should expect fireworks on Sunday at Villa Park.
Fresh off their shocking road win against Arsenal, Aston Villa welcomes Bournemouth to Villa Park.
Manager Unai Emery’s side reclaimed the fourth Champions League spot following their win last weekend, along with Tottenham’s loss to Newcastle.
As for Bournemouth, they captured a 2-2 draw at home against Manchester United, their sixth result over the last seven games.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth
- Aston Villa Moneyline: -125
- Bournemouth Moneyline: +290
- Draw Moneyline: +310
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+105/-145)
EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth
Total Over 3.5 Goals (+105)
Since losing Boubacar Kamara to injury, this Aston Villa defense has taken a massive dip in form.
Over their last nine Premier League fixtures, manager Unai Emery’s side has yet to hold a team under 1.5 expected goals, according to fbref.com.
Since the calendar turned to 2024, they’ve held only one opponent under 1.2 expected goals (Everton) and have conceded 1.87 expected goals per 90 minutes in 13 games.
That’s going to put them in trouble against a Bournemouth attack that dominated them in the previous meeting.
Albeit at home, Bournemouth created two expected goals and three post-shot expected goals against a Villa defense with Kamara in the lineup.
Plus, Villa’s defense will play on short rest following a trip to France on Thursday.
Recently, Emery’s side has struggled to defend in those spots.
Sample their previous four games with only two full days of rest and bettors will find they’ve allowed 1.7 post-shot expected goals at 11v11.
All of that said, Villa’s offense has rarely faltered at home.
They’ve created 2.03 expected goals per 90 minutes this season at Villa Park and have notched at least 1.5 expected goals in 11 of 16 home fixtures.
Plus, Bournemouth’s defense has struggled to defend recently away from home.
Across their last five road league fixtures, they’ve allowed all five opponents to create at least 1.4 xG, and five of their last six to create north of 1.5.
The worry is that Villa created only 0.7 xG and 0.9 psxG at Bournemouth, but they should perform better at home.
As a result, back the over on Sunday.
Aston Villa Form
April 18 at Lille: 1-2, L (Europa Conference League)
April 14 at Arsenal: 0-2, L
April 11 vs. Lille: 2-1, W (Europa Conference League)
April 6 vs. Brentford: 3-3, D
April 3 at Manchester City: 1-4, L
Bournemouth Form
April 13 vs. Manchester United: 2-2, D
April 6 at Luton Town: 1-2, L
April 2 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-0, W
March 30 vs. Everton: 2-1, W
March 13 vs. Luton Town: 4-3, W
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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