Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Aston Villa's Nicolo Zaniolo celebrates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between West Ham and Aston Villa, at the London stadium in London, Sunday, March 17, 2024.
(AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 19, 2024, 3:19 PM
  • Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Bournemouth.
  • These sides played to a 2-2 draw at the Vitality Stadium in the last meeting.
  • Why bettors should expect fireworks on Sunday at Villa Park.

Fresh off their shocking road win against Arsenal, Aston Villa welcomes Bournemouth to Villa Park. 

Manager Unai Emery’s side reclaimed the fourth Champions League spot following their win last weekend, along with Tottenham’s loss to Newcastle. 

As for Bournemouth, they captured a 2-2 draw at home against Manchester United, their sixth result over the last seven games. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth

  • Aston Villa Moneyline: -125
  • Bournemouth Moneyline: +290
  • Draw Moneyline: +310
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+105/-145)

EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth

Total Over 3.5 Goals (+105)

Since losing Boubacar Kamara to injury, this Aston Villa defense has taken a massive dip in form. 

Over their last nine Premier League fixtures, manager Unai Emery’s side has yet to hold a team under 1.5 expected goals, according to 

Since the calendar turned to 2024, they’ve held only one opponent under 1.2 expected goals (Everton) and have conceded 1.87 expected goals per 90 minutes in 13 games. 

That’s going to put them in trouble against a Bournemouth attack that dominated them in the previous meeting. 

Albeit at home, Bournemouth created two expected goals and three post-shot expected goals against a Villa defense with Kamara in the lineup. 

Plus, Villa’s defense will play on short rest following a trip to France on Thursday. 

Recently, Emery’s side has struggled to defend in those spots. 

Sample their previous four games with only two full days of rest and bettors will find they’ve allowed 1.7 post-shot expected goals at 11v11. 

All of that said, Villa’s offense has rarely faltered at home. 

They’ve created 2.03 expected goals per 90 minutes this season at Villa Park and have notched at least 1.5 expected goals in 11 of 16 home fixtures. 

Plus, Bournemouth’s defense has struggled to defend recently away from home. 

Across their last five road league fixtures, they’ve allowed all five opponents to create at least 1.4 xG, and five of their last six to create north of 1.5. 

The worry is that Villa created only 0.7 xG and 0.9 psxG at Bournemouth, but they should perform better at home. 

As a result, back the over on Sunday. 

Aston Villa Form 

April 18 at Lille: 1-2, L (Europa Conference League)

April 14 at Arsenal: 0-2, L

April 11 vs. Lille: 2-1, W (Europa Conference League)

April 6 vs. Brentford: 3-3, D

April 3 at Manchester City: 1-4, L

Bournemouth Form

April 13 vs. Manchester United: 2-2, D

April 6 at Luton Town: 1-2, L

April 2 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-0, W

March 30 vs. Everton: 2-1, W

March 13 vs. Luton Town: 4-3, W

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

Soccer Odds at BetMGM

With around-the-clock matches throughout the year, there’s never a break in soccer betting action at BetMGM.

You can view updated soccer odds for the Champions League, MLS, World Cup, and other leagues and events around the world.

Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome offer — to start betting. And always check your new account for updated sportsbook promos and bonuses.

Visit the sportsbook today to place your bet online!

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.