Fulham vs. Newcastle Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Fulham's Antonee Robinson runs after a loose ball during the English Premier League soccer match between Fulham and Aston Villa at Craven cottage stadium in London, Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024.
(Alastair Grant/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 04, 2024, 4:32 PM
  • Fulham is a -0.5-goal favorite against Newcastle United.
  • Newcastle earned 3-0 win in the last meeting, but played up a man for plurality.
  • Why bettors should fade the Newcastle United defense on Saturday.

On Saturday at Craven Cottage, Fulham will seek revenge for a 3-0 road defeat at Newcastle United earlier this season. 

Both teams experienced less-than-desirable results in the midweek. 

Fulham lost 3-1 as road dogs to Nottingham Forest, while Newcastle United dropped points in a 1-1 draw against Everton. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Fulham vs. Newcastle United

  • Fulham Moneyline: +145
  • Newcastle United Moneyline: +165
  • Draw Moneyline: +275
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)

EPL Prediction – Fulham vs. Newcastle United

Fulham Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-115)

Newcastle’s defense is completely decimated by injuries and I’ll be looking to fade them for the foreseeable future. 

The following defenders are out for Saturday’s match: Tino Livramento, Sven Botman, Jamaal Lascelles, Kieran Trippier and Matt Targett. 

That leaves them needing to deploy two players – Dan Burn and Emil Krafth – out of position in their backline. 

Although Fulham failed to score in the reverse fixture, it came because they had striker Raul Jimenez sent off on 22 minutes. 

Recently, Fulham have incorporated Rodrigo Muniz into the Starting XI and they’ve begun to thrive against bad defenses. 

With Muniz in the lineup, Fulham have played six games this season against the five worst defenses by non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. 

They’ve cleared this number four times against such opponents, including three straight contests. 

In terms of the underlying metrics, Fulham have created 1.42 expected goals per 90 in those six games. 

Even more impressive – Fulham’s last three clearances against such opponents all came away from home. 

Statistically, they’re a significantly more dangerous attack at home. To date, they’ve created 1.64 xG per 90 at Craven Cottage compared to only 1.08 away from home. 

In addition, Newcastle have managed to keep only four teams under this number away from home. 

Back a strong offensive effort from Fulham after a loss. 

Fulham Form 

April 2 at Nottingham Forest: 1-3, L

March 30 at Sheffield United: 3-3, D

March 16 vs. Tottenham: 3-0, W

March 9 at Wolves: 1-2, L

March 2 vs. Brighton: 3-0, W

Newcastle United Form

April 2 vs. Everton: 1-1, D

March 30 vs. West Ham United; 4-3, W

March 16 at Man City: 0-2, L (FA Cup)

March 11 at Chelsea: 2-3, L

March 2 vs. Wolves: 3-0, W

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.