- Everton is a -0.5-goal favorite against Burnley.
- Everton earned a 2-0 road win in their first head-to-head meeting with Burnley.
- This system says one side is undervalued for Saturday’s fixture.
It’s a Premier League match with relegation implications as Everton prepare to welcome Burnley to Goodison Park.
Both teams earned points in their midweek fixtures. Everton went to Newcastle United as road underdogs and snatched a late point thanks to a Dominic Calvert-Lewin penalty.
As for Burnley, they drew with Wolves as home favorites and extended their unbeaten run to four games.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds for Saturday’s match along with my best bet.
EPL Betting Odds – Everton vs. Burnley
- Everton Moneyline: -155
- Burnley Moneyline: +400
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-135/+100)
EPL Prediction – Everton vs. Burnley
Everton Moneyline (-155)
This is such a good sell-high spot on Burnley, who have received so much luck in recent matches.
They drew West Ham despite losing the xG battle 0.7 to 2.1 and went on to beat Brentford after playing up a man for 80+ minutes.
Then, despite going down a man to Chelsea and conceding four expected goals, they managed a point. In the midweek, they drew against Wolves, who were without five starters.
For Everton, they enter this match a major positive regression candidate at home.
The Toffees own a -3 home goal differential compared to a +8.3 expected goal differential, per fbref.com. As home favorites, it’s a +0 goal differential vs. a +7.1 expected goal differential.
Everton also match a pair of historically profitable systems.
Since 2021-22, home favorites sitting between -210 and +155 that won the previous meeting are 71-45 SU, assuming they’ve surrendered two or fewer goals in their last two games.
Additionally, home favorites that bossed an opponent in the previous meeting generally do well.
Since the 2020-21 season, home favorites that drew or lost their previous game and won the last meeting by at least two goals are 26-13-1 ATS, assuming two additional factors:
- The opponent’s win percentage is between 10% and 40%
- The game number is between 20 and 38
Finally, Burnley are a major negative regression candidate away from home.
Entering Saturday’s match, they’ve posted a -14 goal differential against a -20 expected goal differential on the road. expect a loss against an Everton side due for a win.
One more factor to consider here.
There are six teams that both create more than 1.41 npxG per 90 and allow under 1.39 npxG per 90 this season: Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool and Man City.
Burnley have earned points only twice in 10 fixtures against those sides – both lucky by expected goals – and possess a -23.9 post-shot expected goal differential.
Just against Everton and Brighton – both played at full strength with no penalties – they’ve posted a -2.25 post shot expected differential per 90 minutes.
As a result, expect a win for an Everton side due for major positive regression as favorites.
Everton Form
April 2 at Newcastle United: 1-1, D
March 30 at Bournemouth: 1-2, L
March 9 at Manchester United: 0-2, L
March 2 vs. West Ham United: 1-3, L
Feb. 24 at Brighton & Hove Albion: 1-1, D
Burnley Form
April 2 vs. Wolves: 1-1, D
March 30 at Chelsea: 2-2, D
March 16 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W
March 10 at West Ham: 2-2, D
March 3 vs. Bournemouth: 0-2, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-16-1 | 43.1% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-13-4 | 48.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-6-2 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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