Everton vs. Burnley Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Everton's Dominic Calvert-Lewin, left, celebrates with Everton's Vitaliy Mykolenko after he scores his sides first goal during the English Premier League soccer match between West Ham United and Everton at the London stadium in London, Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023.
(Kirsty Wigglesworth/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 04, 2024, 12:15 PM
  • Everton is a -0.5-goal favorite against Burnley.
  • Everton earned a 2-0 road win in their first head-to-head meeting with Burnley.
  • This system says one side is undervalued for Saturday’s fixture.

It’s a Premier League match with relegation implications as Everton prepare to welcome Burnley to Goodison Park. 

Both teams earned points in their midweek fixtures. Everton went to Newcastle United as road underdogs and snatched a late point thanks to a Dominic Calvert-Lewin penalty. 

As for Burnley, they drew with Wolves as home favorites and extended their unbeaten run to four games. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds for Saturday’s match along with my best bet. 

EPL Betting Odds – Everton vs. Burnley

  • Everton Moneyline: -155
  • Burnley Moneyline: +400
  • Draw Moneyline: +300
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-135/+100)

EPL Prediction – Everton vs. Burnley

Everton Moneyline (-155)

This is such a good sell-high spot on Burnley, who have received so much luck in recent matches. 

They drew West Ham despite losing the xG battle 0.7 to 2.1 and went on to beat Brentford after playing up a man for 80+ minutes. 

Then, despite going down a man to Chelsea and conceding four expected goals, they managed a point. In the midweek, they drew against Wolves, who were without five starters. 

For Everton, they enter this match a major positive regression candidate at home. 

The Toffees own a -3 home goal differential compared to a +8.3 expected goal differential, per fbref.com. As home favorites, it’s a +0 goal differential vs. a +7.1 expected goal differential. 

Everton also match a pair of historically profitable systems. 

Since 2021-22, home favorites sitting between -210 and +155 that won the previous meeting are 71-45 SU, assuming they’ve surrendered two or fewer goals in their last two games. 

Additionally, home favorites that bossed an opponent in the previous meeting generally do well. 

Since the 2020-21 season, home favorites that drew or lost their previous game and won the last meeting by at least two goals are 26-13-1 ATS, assuming two additional factors: 

  • The opponent’s win percentage is between 10% and 40%
  • The game number is between 20 and 38

Finally, Burnley are a major negative regression candidate away from home. 

Entering Saturday’s match, they’ve posted a -14 goal differential against a -20 expected goal differential on the road.  expect a loss against an Everton side due for a win. 

One more factor to consider here. 

There are six teams that both create more than 1.41 npxG per 90 and allow under 1.39 npxG per 90 this season: Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool and Man City. 

Burnley have earned points only twice in 10 fixtures against those sides – both lucky by expected goals – and possess a -23.9 post-shot expected goal differential. 

Just against Everton and Brighton – both played at full strength with no penalties – they’ve posted a -2.25 post shot expected differential per 90 minutes. 

As a result, expect a win for an Everton side due for major positive regression as favorites. 

Everton Form 

April 2 at Newcastle United: 1-1, D

March 30 at Bournemouth: 1-2, L

March 9 at Manchester United: 0-2, L

March 2 vs. West Ham United: 1-3, L

Feb. 24 at Brighton & Hove Albion: 1-1, D

Burnley Form

April 2 vs. Wolves: 1-1, D

March 30 at Chelsea: 2-2, D

March 16 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W

March 10 at West Ham: 2-2, D

March 3 vs. Bournemouth: 0-2, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.