- Everton is a -0.5-goal favorite against Burnley.
- Everton earned a 2-0 road win in their first head-to-head meeting with Burnley.
- This system says one side is undervalued for Saturday’s fixture.
It’s a Premier League match with relegation implications as Everton prepare to welcome Burnley to Goodison Park.Â
Both teams earned points in their midweek fixtures. Everton went to Newcastle United as road underdogs and snatched a late point thanks to a Dominic Calvert-Lewin penalty.Â
As for Burnley, they drew with Wolves as home favorites and extended their unbeaten run to four games.Â
Here’s a look at the EPL odds for Saturday’s match along with my best bet.Â
EPL Betting Odds – Everton vs. Burnley
- Everton Moneyline: -155
- Burnley Moneyline: +400
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-135/+100)
EPL Prediction – Everton vs. Burnley
Everton Moneyline (-155)
This is such a good sell-high spot on Burnley, who have received so much luck in recent matches.Â
They drew West Ham despite losing the xG battle 0.7 to 2.1 and went on to beat Brentford after playing up a man for 80+ minutes.Â
Then, despite going down a man to Chelsea and conceding four expected goals, they managed a point. In the midweek, they drew against Wolves, who were without five starters.Â
For Everton, they enter this match a major positive regression candidate at home.Â
The Toffees own a -3 home goal differential compared to a +8.3 expected goal differential, per fbref.com. As home favorites, it’s a +0 goal differential vs. a +7.1 expected goal differential.Â
Everton also match a pair of historically profitable systems.Â
Since 2021-22, home favorites sitting between -210 and +155 that won the previous meeting are 71-45 SU, assuming they’ve surrendered two or fewer goals in their last two games.Â
Additionally, home favorites that bossed an opponent in the previous meeting generally do well.Â
Since the 2020-21 season, home favorites that drew or lost their previous game and won the last meeting by at least two goals are 26-13-1 ATS, assuming two additional factors:Â
- The opponent’s win percentage is between 10% and 40%
- The game number is between 20 and 38
Finally, Burnley are a major negative regression candidate away from home.Â
Entering Saturday’s match, they’ve posted a -14 goal differential against a -20 expected goal differential on the road. expect a loss against an Everton side due for a win.Â
One more factor to consider here.Â
There are six teams that both create more than 1.41 npxG per 90 and allow under 1.39 npxG per 90 this season: Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool and Man City.Â
Burnley have earned points only twice in 10 fixtures against those sides – both lucky by expected goals – and possess a -23.9 post-shot expected goal differential.Â
Just against Everton and Brighton – both played at full strength with no penalties – they’ve posted a -2.25 post shot expected differential per 90 minutes.Â
As a result, expect a win for an Everton side due for major positive regression as favorites.Â
Everton FormÂ
April 2 at Newcastle United: 1-1, D
March 30 at Bournemouth: 1-2, L
March 9 at Manchester United: 0-2, L
March 2 vs. West Ham United: 1-3, L
Feb. 24 at Brighton & Hove Albion: 1-1, D
Burnley Form
April 2 vs. Wolves: 1-1, D
March 30 at Chelsea: 2-2, D
March 16 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W
March 10 at West Ham: 2-2, D
March 3 vs. Bournemouth: 0-2, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
Arsenal | Everton | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Emirates Stadium |
Man City | West Ham United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Etihad Stadium |
Brentford | Newcastle United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | GTech Community Stadium |
Brighton & Hove Albion | Manchester United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Amex Stadium |
Burnley | Nottingham Forest | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Turf Moor |
Chelsea | Bournemouth | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Stamford Bridge |
Crystal Palace | Aston Villa | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Selhurst Park |
Liverpool | Wolves | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Anfield |
Luton Town | Fulham | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Kenilworth Road |
Sheffield United | Tottenham | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Bramall Lane |
EPL Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential | Notes |
Manchester City | 27-7-3 | 88 | 60 | --- |
Arsenal FC | 27-5-5 | 86 | 61 | --- |
Liverpool FC | 23-10-4 | 79 | 43 | --- |
Aston Villa FC | 20-8-9 | 68 | 20 | --- |
Tottenham Hotspur | 19-6-12 | 63 | 10 | --- |
Chelsea FC | 17-9-11 | 60 | 13 | --- |
Newcastle United | 17-6-14 | 57 | 21 | --- |
Manchester United | 17-6-14 | 57 | -3 | --- |
West Ham United | 14-10-13 | 52 | -12 | --- |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-12-12 | 48 | -4 | --- |
Bournemouth | 13-9-15 | 48 | -12 | --- |
Crystal Palace | 12-10-15 | 46 | -6 | --- |
Wolves | 13-7-17 | 46 | -13 | --- |
Fulham FC | 12-8-17 | 44 | -8 | --- |
Everton | 13-9-15 | 40 | -10 | 8 Point Deduction |
Brentford | 10-9-18 | 39 | -7 | --- |
Nottingham Forest | 8-9-20 | 29 | -19 | 4 Point Deduction |
Luton Town | 6-8-23 | 26 | -31 | --- |
Burnley FC | 5-9-23 | 24 | -36 | --- |
Sheffield United | 3-7-27 | 16 | -66 | --- |
EPL ATS Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
Arsenal | 22-14-1 | .608 | 10-7-1 | .583 | 12-7 | .632 |
Aston Villa | 19-17-1 | .527 | 12-7 | .632 | 7-10-1 | .417 |
Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | .541 | 9-8-2 | .526 | 10-8 | .556 |
Brentford | 14-21-2 | .405 | 6-11-1 | .361 | 8-10-1 | .447 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 15-20-2 | .432 | 8-9-1 | .472 | 7-11-1 | .395 |
Burnley | 18-19 | .486 | 5-13 | .278 | 13-6 | .684 |
Chelsea | 19-18 | .514 | 10-8 | .556 | 9-10 | .474 |
Crystal Palace | 20-17 | .541 | 9-9 | .500 | 11-8 | .579 |
Everton | 17-20 | .459 | 10-9 | .526 | 7-11 | .389 |
Fulham | 18-18-1 | .500 | 10-8-1 | .553 | 8-10 | .444 |
Liverpool | 18-19 | .486 | 10-8 | .556 | 8-11 | .421 |
Luton Town | 22-14-1 | .608 | 13-5 | .722 | 9-9-1 | .500 |
Manchester City | 19-18 | .514 | 8-10 | .444 | 11-8 | .579 |
Manchester United | 17-20 | .459 | 9-10 | .474 | 8-10 | .444 |
Newcastle United | 18-19 | .486 | 12-7 | .632 | 6-12 | .333 |
Nottingham Forest | 15-20-2 | .432 | 5-13-1 | .289 | 10-7-1 | .583 |
Sheffield United | 19-18 | .514 | 9-9 | .500 | 10-9 | .526 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 18-19 | .486 | 9-10 | .474 | 9-9 | .500 |
West Ham United | 19-18 | .514 | 12-7 | .632 | 7-11 | .389 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 18-19 | .486 | 9-10 | .474 | 9-9 | .500 |
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