- Liverpool is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home favorite against Chelsea.
- Chelsea has lost seven of its last eight EPL matches.
- My Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction depends on Chelsea’s Starting XI on Saturday.
Liverpool will attempt to get back to winning ways against a reeling Chelsea side.
Arne Slot’s Liverpool fell 3-2 at Manchester United on Sunday, ending a three-match winning streak. This season, Liverpool earned maximum points in 10 of 17 fixtures at Anfield.
Chelsea delivered a complete dud on Monday against Nottingham Forest. Despite late market support, the Blues fell 3-1 as a -250 home favorite against a relegation candidate.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction.
Liverpool vs Chelsea: Premier League Odds
Chelsea vs Liverpool: Prediction
If Chelsea announces a Starting XI that includes at least two of Jamie Gittens, Pedro Neto and Alejandro Garnacho, my Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction is Chelsea Over 1.5 Goals (+130).
Both teams are incredibly injured in attack, particularly Liverpool. Both Hugo Ekitike and Alexander Isak are done for the year, while Mo Salah is doubtful for Saturday’s match.
In the event Salah plays, I’d shift my thinking toward Over 3.5 Goals (+105).
If he doesn’t – and we get a Chelsea lineup that includes the aforementioned players – I’d rather place trust in Chelsea.
Chelsea’s attack continues to radically underperform its underlying metrics. After Monday’s performance against Nottingham Forest, Chelsea has scored 54 goals off 69.6 expected goals.
Eight penalties contributed to that total. However, they’ve also underperformed by 15.9 xG from open play alone!
Liverpool slumped to 2.3 xGA against Manchester United on Sunday, all from open play. Only once in the last eight has Liverpool kept a clean sheet, with four opponents clearing 1.5 goals.
Somehow, Liverpool has run lucky in defense while posting a terrible record. Over those eight matches, Liverpool conceded 12 goals against 14.3 expected goals, per Understat.
That defensive luck has transpired over the entire season, too. Over 35 matches, Liverpool allowed 47 goals against 49.2 expected goals.
It coincided with Liverpool’s opponents receiving five red cards, tied for the most in the league. The red card luck likely translates to a misleading fourth-place rating in xGA.
Those trends, in my estimation, gives Chelsea a better chance to clear this benchmark than the odds suggest. At minimum, I’d expect the visiting attack to get at least one tally.
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