Luton Town vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins celebrates after scoring his side's third goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Aston Villa and West Ham United at Villa Park in Birmingham, England, Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023.
(Rui Vieira/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 28, 2024, 3:07 PM
  • Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Luton Town.
  • Luton Town has proved a good home underdog ATS, but hasn’t earned results.
  • Bettors should attack this prop market rather than taking a moneyline.

Before Saturday’s standalone Premier League fixture at Kenilworth Road, I’m set to offer an Aston Villa vs. Luton Town prediction. 

Villa enters this match in good form following a 4-2 home win over Nottingham Forest. As for Luton Town, they suffered a 4-1 defeat to Liverpool in their last league fixture. 

When these sides met earlier this year, Villa captured a 3-1 win as home favorites. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Luton Town

  • Aston Villa Moneyline: -130
  • Luton Town Moneyline: +310
  • Draw Moneyline: +310
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)

EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Luton Town

Correct Score Bands: Villa 2-1, 3-1, 4-1 (+333, 0.5 unit), Luton Town Over 1.5 Goals (+150, 0.5 unit)

When the line first dropped for this match, my gut instinct was to take Luton Town as home underdogs. 

After all, this EPL newcomer is 10-2 ATS as home underdogs this season. 

However, further research revealed that record can largely be attributed to Luton’s ability to cover big spreads. In those 12 games, they’ve earned points only five times. 

On the flip side, Villa has closed a road favorite eight times this season and have captured all three points five times. 

Moreover, bettors can expect goals to flow in this game. 

Across Luton’s 12 matches as a home dog, they’re producing 1.4 expected goals per 90 minutes while allowing 1.61, per 

Conversely, Villa’s eight matches as road favorites saw them create 1.6 expected goals per 90 minutes while allowing 1.31. 

I’ll be surprised if Villa scores four goals for the second straight game, but either two or three is within reach. 

In the reverse fixture at Villa Park, they created 3.9 post shot expected goals, per 

The big unknown here is what Luton’s offense accomplishes. If the former bet loses, it’s probably because Luton scored two or more goals. 

As a result, I’ll hedge based on the fact they created north of two expected goals in the midweek against Manchester City. 

But road favorites that won by two or more goals the first time are 68.7% SU since 2018-19, assuming their win percentage is higher than 60%. 

As a result, take this creative angle to back Villa rather than laying -130. 

Aston Villa Form 

Feb. 24 vs. Nottingham Forest: 4-2, W

Feb. 17 at Fulham: 2-1, W

Feb. 11 vs. Manchester United: 1-2, L

Feb. 7 vs. Chelsea: 1-3, L (FA Cup)

Feb. 3 at Sheffield United: 5-0, W

Luton Town Form

Feb. 27 vs. Manchester City: 2-6, L (FA Cup)

Feb. 21 at Liverpool: 1-4, L

Feb. 18 vs. Manchester United: 1-2, L

Feb. 10 vs. Sheffield United: 1-3, L

Feb. 3 at Newcastle United: 4-4, D

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalChelseaApr. 233:00 PMEmirates Stadium
WolvesBournemouthApr. 242:45 PMMolineux Stadium
Crystal PalaceNewcastle UnitedApr. 243:00 PMSelhurst Park
EvertonLiverpoolApr. 243:00 PMGoodison Park
Manchester UnitedSheffield UnitedApr. 243:00 PMOld Trafford
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester CityApr. 253:00 PMAmex Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Arsenal FC23-5-57451---
Liverpool FC22-8-37443---
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Aston Villa FC20-6-86621---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1248-9---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Fulham FC12-6-1642-4---
Crystal Palace9-9-1536-14---
Everton10-8-1530-138 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1826-184 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2125-28---
Burnley FC5-8-2123-32---
Sheffield United3-7-2316-57---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa17-15-1.53011-6.6476-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Crystal Palace16-17.4857-9.4389-8.529
Luton Town21-12-1.63212-5.7069-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-18-2.4415-11-1.3249-7-1.559
Sheffield United18-15.5459-8.5299-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-17.50010-7.5887-10.412
Wolverhampton Wanderers17-16.5158-8.5009-8.529

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.