Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Tottenham's James Maddison, centre, celebrates with Tottenham's Son Heung-min after scoring his side's second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Tottenham Hotspur and Fulham at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, Monday, Oct. 23, 2023.
(Kin Cheung/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 27, 2024, 2:42 PM
  • Tottenham is a -1.5-goal favorite against Crystal Palace.
  • Spurs are coming off a home loss, had two weeks between fixtures.
  • Is the market overrating Palace following a home win?

Ahead of Saturday’s Premier League fixture at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, I’m set to offer a Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace prediction

Spurs will look to avenge their home loss to Wolves two weeks ago, while Palace looks to continue their momentum off a 3-0 home win over Burnley last weekend. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace

  • Tottenham Moneyline: -190
  • Crystal Palace Moneyline: +475
  • Draw Moneyline: +350
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)

EPL Prediction – Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace

Tottenham Spread (-1.5, +125) vs. Crystal Palace

Disclaimer: I prefer Tottenham -1 at -125 or better, but this offers a decent price as well. 

Either way, I love this spot for Spurs, largely because they match a number of historically profitable systems.

Since the 2012-13 EPL season, home favorites are 58% ATS in the game immediately following a straight up defeat at home. Just this season, they’re 8-1 ATS. 

Further, it’s historically advantageous for bettors to fade dogs coming off a win as home favorites that lost the previous head-to-head meeting. 

Since the 2021-22 EPL season, such teams are 8-53 SU against the three-way moneyline. Of those 53 non-wins, 39 saw that team lose. 

In the 2023 season, those teams are 0-15 against the three-way moneyline and have earned points only twice. 

Palace, who earned a 3-0 home win over Burnley in their last matchup but lost to Spurs at home, fit that qualification. 

Lastly, Tottenham has largely excelled this season as a home favorite. Through 10 qualifying matches, they’re 7-3 ATS. 

The underlying metrics are also encouraging for Spurs, who own a +0.27 xGDiff per 90 minutes at home. On the road, Palace comes in at -0.61 xGDiff per 90 minutes, per fbref.com. 

Given Palace won’t have their three most important players for Saturday’s match – Eberechi Eze, Marc Guehi and Michael Olise are all out – I’ll sell high on the Eagles. 

Tottenham Form 

Feb. 17 vs. Wolves: 1-2, L

Feb. 10 vs. Brighton: 2-1, W

Feb. 3 at Everton: 2-2, D

Jan. 31 vs. Brentford: 3-2, W

Jan. 26 vs. Man City: 0-1, L (FA Cup)

Crystal Palace Form

Feb. 24 vs. Burnley: 3-0, W

Feb. 19 at Everton: 1-1, D

Feb. 12 vs. Chelsea: 1-3, L

Feb. 3 at Brighton: 1-4, L

Jan. 30 vs. Sheffield United: 3-2, W

EPL Match Schedule this Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedTottenhamApr. 137:30 AMSt. James' Park
BrentfordSheffield UnitedApr. 1310:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
BurnleyBrightonApr. 1310:00 AMTurf Moor
Man CityLuton TownApr. 1310:00 AMEtihad Stadium
Nottingham ForestWolvesApr. 1310:00 AMThe City Ground
BournemouthManchester UnitedApr. 1312:30 PMVitality Stadium
LiverpoolCrystal PalaceApr. 149:00 AMAnfield
West Ham UnitedFulhamApr. 149:00 AMLondon Stadium
ArsenalAston VillaApr. 1411:30 PMEmirates Stadium
ChelseaEvertonApr. 153:00 PMStamford Bridge

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Arsenal FC22-5-57149---
Liverpool FC21-8-37141---
Aston Villa FC19-6-86319---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1148-6---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Wolves12-7-1343-5---
Fulham FC12-6-1542-2---
Bournemouth11-9-1242-10---
Crystal Palace8-9-1533-17---
Brentford8-8-1732-11---
Everton9-8-1527-158 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1726-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2025-24---
Burnley FC4-8-2120-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2216-54---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal18-13.5818-7.53310-6.625
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Bournemouth18-12-2.5949-6-2.5889-6.600
Brentford12-19-2.3946-10-1.3826-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Burnley13-19-1.4094-12-1.2659-7.563
Chelsea15-16.48410-6.6255-10.333
Crystal Palace15-17.4696-9.4009-8.529
Everton14-18.4387-8.4677-10.412
Fulham17-15-1.53010-5-1.6567-10.412
Liverpool16-16.5009-8.5297-8.467
Luton Town21-11-1.65212-4.7509-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-17-2.4555-11-1.3249-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-16.51510-7.5887-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-15-1.5168-7.5339-7-1.559

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.