Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Ahead of Saturday’s Premier League fixture at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, I’m set to offer a Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace prediction. 

Spurs will look to avenge their home loss to Wolves two weeks ago, while Palace looks to continue their momentum off a 3-0 home win over Burnley last weekend. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace

• Tottenham Moneyline: -190
• Crystal Palace Moneyline: +475
• Draw Moneyline: +350
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)

EPL Prediction – Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace

Tottenham Spread (-1.5, +125) vs. Crystal Palace

Disclaimer: I prefer Tottenham -1 at -125 or better, but this offers a decent price as well. 

Either way, I love this spot for Spurs, largely because they match a number of historically profitable systems.

Since the 2012-13 EPL season, home favorites are 58% ATS in the game immediately following a straight up defeat at home. Just this season, they’re 8-1 ATS. 

Further, it’s historically advantageous for bettors to fade dogs coming off a win as home favorites that lost the previous head-to-head meeting. 

Since the 2021-22 EPL season, such teams are 8-53 SU against the three-way moneyline. Of those 53 non-wins, 39 saw that team lose. 

In the 2023 season, those teams are 0-15 against the three-way moneyline and have earned points only twice. 

Palace, who earned a 3-0 home win over Burnley in their last matchup but lost to Spurs at home, fit that qualification. 

Lastly, Tottenham has largely excelled this season as a home favorite. Through 10 qualifying matches, they’re 7-3 ATS. 

The underlying metrics are also encouraging for Spurs, who own a +0.27 xGDiff per 90 minutes at home. On the road, Palace comes in at -0.61 xGDiff per 90 minutes, per fbref.com. 

Given Palace won’t have their three most important players for Saturday’s match – Eberechi Eze, Marc Guehi and Michael Olise are all out – I’ll sell high on the Eagles. 

Tottenham Form 

Feb. 17 vs. Wolves: 1-2, L

Feb. 10 vs. Brighton: 2-1, W

Feb. 3 at Everton: 2-2, D

Jan. 31 vs. Brentford: 3-2, W

Jan. 26 vs. Man City: 0-1, L (FA Cup)

Crystal Palace Form

Feb. 24 vs. Burnley: 3-0, W

Feb. 19 at Everton: 1-1, D

Feb. 12 vs. Chelsea: 1-3, L

Feb. 3 at Brighton: 1-4, L

Jan. 30 vs. Sheffield United: 3-2, W

EPL Match Schedule this Weekend

EPL Standings

EPL ATS Records