Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Tottenham's James Maddison, centre, celebrates with Tottenham's Son Heung-min after scoring his side's second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Tottenham Hotspur and Fulham at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, Monday, Oct. 23, 2023.
(Kin Cheung/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 27, 2024, 2:42 PM
  • Tottenham is a -1.5-goal favorite against Crystal Palace.
  • Spurs are coming off a home loss, had two weeks between fixtures.
  • Is the market overrating Palace following a home win?

Ahead of Saturday’s Premier League fixture at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, I’m set to offer a Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace prediction

Spurs will look to avenge their home loss to Wolves two weeks ago, while Palace looks to continue their momentum off a 3-0 home win over Burnley last weekend. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace

  • Tottenham Moneyline: -190
  • Crystal Palace Moneyline: +475
  • Draw Moneyline: +350
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)

EPL Prediction – Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace

Tottenham Spread (-1.5, +125) vs. Crystal Palace

Disclaimer: I prefer Tottenham -1 at -125 or better, but this offers a decent price as well. 

Either way, I love this spot for Spurs, largely because they match a number of historically profitable systems.

Since the 2012-13 EPL season, home favorites are 58% ATS in the game immediately following a straight up defeat at home. Just this season, they’re 8-1 ATS. 

Further, it’s historically advantageous for bettors to fade dogs coming off a win as home favorites that lost the previous head-to-head meeting. 

Since the 2021-22 EPL season, such teams are 8-53 SU against the three-way moneyline. Of those 53 non-wins, 39 saw that team lose. 

In the 2023 season, those teams are 0-15 against the three-way moneyline and have earned points only twice. 

Palace, who earned a 3-0 home win over Burnley in their last matchup but lost to Spurs at home, fit that qualification. 

Lastly, Tottenham has largely excelled this season as a home favorite. Through 10 qualifying matches, they’re 7-3 ATS. 

The underlying metrics are also encouraging for Spurs, who own a +0.27 xGDiff per 90 minutes at home. On the road, Palace comes in at -0.61 xGDiff per 90 minutes, per fbref.com. 

Given Palace won’t have their three most important players for Saturday’s match – Eberechi Eze, Marc Guehi and Michael Olise are all out – I’ll sell high on the Eagles. 

Tottenham Form 

Feb. 17 vs. Wolves: 1-2, L

Feb. 10 vs. Brighton: 2-1, W

Feb. 3 at Everton: 2-2, D

Jan. 31 vs. Brentford: 3-2, W

Jan. 26 vs. Man City: 0-1, L (FA Cup)

Crystal Palace Form

Feb. 24 vs. Burnley: 3-0, W

Feb. 19 at Everton: 1-1, D

Feb. 12 vs. Chelsea: 1-3, L

Feb. 3 at Brighton: 1-4, L

Jan. 30 vs. Sheffield United: 3-2, W

EPL Match Schedule this Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Bournemouth13-9-1548-12---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Wolves13-7-1746-13---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Brentford10-9-1839-7---
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal22-14-1.60810-7-1.58312-7.632
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Bournemouth19-16-2.5419-8-2.52610-8.556
Brentford14-21-2.4056-11-1.3618-10-1.447
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Burnley18-19.4865-13.27813-6.684
Chelsea19-18.51410-8.5569-10.474
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Everton17-20.45910-9.5267-11.389
Fulham18-18-1.50010-8-1.5538-10.444
Liverpool18-19.48610-8.5568-11.421
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.