- Tottenham is a -1.5-goal favorite against Crystal Palace.
- Spurs are coming off a home loss, had two weeks between fixtures.
- Is the market overrating Palace following a home win?
Ahead of Saturday’s Premier League fixture at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, I’m set to offer a Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace prediction.
Spurs will look to avenge their home loss to Wolves two weeks ago, while Palace looks to continue their momentum off a 3-0 home win over Burnley last weekend.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace
- Tottenham Moneyline: -190
- Crystal Palace Moneyline: +475
- Draw Moneyline: +350
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)
EPL Prediction – Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace
Tottenham Spread (-1.5, +125) vs. Crystal Palace
Disclaimer: I prefer Tottenham -1 at -125 or better, but this offers a decent price as well.
Either way, I love this spot for Spurs, largely because they match a number of historically profitable systems.
Since the 2012-13 EPL season, home favorites are 58% ATS in the game immediately following a straight up defeat at home. Just this season, they’re 8-1 ATS.
Further, it’s historically advantageous for bettors to fade dogs coming off a win as home favorites that lost the previous head-to-head meeting.
Since the 2021-22 EPL season, such teams are 8-53 SU against the three-way moneyline. Of those 53 non-wins, 39 saw that team lose.
In the 2023 season, those teams are 0-15 against the three-way moneyline and have earned points only twice.
Palace, who earned a 3-0 home win over Burnley in their last matchup but lost to Spurs at home, fit that qualification.
Lastly, Tottenham has largely excelled this season as a home favorite. Through 10 qualifying matches, they’re 7-3 ATS.
The underlying metrics are also encouraging for Spurs, who own a +0.27 xGDiff per 90 minutes at home. On the road, Palace comes in at -0.61 xGDiff per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Given Palace won’t have their three most important players for Saturday’s match – Eberechi Eze, Marc Guehi and Michael Olise are all out – I’ll sell high on the Eagles.
Tottenham Form
Feb. 17 vs. Wolves: 1-2, L
Feb. 10 vs. Brighton: 2-1, W
Feb. 3 at Everton: 2-2, D
Jan. 31 vs. Brentford: 3-2, W
Jan. 26 vs. Man City: 0-1, L (FA Cup)
Crystal Palace Form
Feb. 24 vs. Burnley: 3-0, W
Feb. 19 at Everton: 1-1, D
Feb. 12 vs. Chelsea: 1-3, L
Feb. 3 at Brighton: 1-4, L
Jan. 30 vs. Sheffield United: 3-2, W
EPL Match Schedule this Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Nov. 8 | 7:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Everton | Fulham | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| West Ham United | Burnley | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Nov. 8 | 12:30 p.m. | Stadium of Light |
| Chelsea | Wolves | Nov. 8 | 3 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Brentford | Newcastle United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Nov. 9 | 11:30 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Arsenal | 8-1-1 | 25 | 15 |
| Manchester City | 6-1-3 | 19 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 5-3-2 | 18 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 6-0-4 | 18 | 4 |
| Sunderland | 5-3-2 | 18 | 4 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5-2-3 | 17 | 9 |
| Chelsea | 5-2-3 | 17 | 7 |
| Manchester United | 5-2-3 | 17 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 4-4-2 | 16 | 5 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-3-3 | 15 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | 4-3-3 | 15 | -1 |
| Brentford | 4-1-5 | 13 | -1 |
| Newcastle United | 3-3-4 | 12 | -1 |
| Everton | 3-3-4 | 12 | -3 |
| Fulham | 3-2-5 | 11 | -2 |
| Leeds United | 3-2-5 | 11 | -8 |
| Burnley | 3-1-6 | 10 | -7 |
| West Ham United | 2-1-7 | 7 | -11 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-3-6 | 6 | -12 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-2-8 | 2 | -15 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 2-1-2 | 60.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Bournemouth | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Brentford | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Burnley | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Chelsea | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
| Everton | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-2-2 | 40.0% |
| Fulham | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Leeds United | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Liverpool | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 80.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Manchester City | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Manchester United | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Newcastle United | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Sunderland | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 5-0-0 | 100.0% |
| West Ham United | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% |
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