Man City vs. Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Arsenal's manager Mikel Arteta speaks to the players while Gabriel Jesus, right, gestures to the crowd during the English Premier League soccer match between Arsenal and Brighton and Hove Albion at the Emirates Stadium in London, Sunday, Dec. 17, 2023.
(Ian Walton/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Sep 18, 2024, 9:26 PM
  • Man City is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Arsenal.
  • Arsenal earned four points from six against City last season.
  • I predict this match will stay under the pregame total.

The two presumed EPL title challengers meet Sunday in Manchester as title holders Man City host Arsenal. 

Both teams are unbeaten to start the year and earned wins on Matchday 4. City fell behind 1-0 to Brentford but used two Erling Haaland goals to win 2-1. 

As for Arsenal, a late goal gave them a 1-0 win over crosstown rivals Tottenham. 

Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Man City vs. Arsenal prediction. 

Man City vs. Arsenal Odds, Premier League

  • Man City Moneyline: -130
  • Arsenal Moneyline: +360
  • Draw Moneyline: +270
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-120/-115)
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (-130), No (-110)

Man City vs. Arsenal Prediction: Total Goals

My prediction for Man City vs. Arsenal is the pregame total Under 2.5 Goals (-115). 

I worry about Arsenal’s offensive viability in this match without attacking midfielder Martin Odegaard. 

At Tottenham, Arsenal managed only 0.75 expected goals, including 0.37 from open play. 

For context, that came against a team that ranked 14th in expected goals against the previous campaign. 

Now they have to travel to face City, a team that ranked second in that category last season. 

Even more concerning for Arsenal? They face a Thursday Champions League game in Italy, while City play on Wednesday at home. 

Last season, Arsenal played two matches against City and created only 1.05 expected goals across both legs.

Just at City: 0.66 expected goals, 0.25 post-shot expected goals. 

But this was simultaneously an Arsenal defense that held up well against a prolific attack. 

City didn’t have Kevin De Bruyne for the first meeting, so a 0.48 xG output isn’t entirely surprising. 

What is surprising is that City created only 1.02 xG at home in the second head-to-head meeting. 

Based on the scheduling spot and the lack of offensive creativity, I expect Mikel Arteta to sit back, cede possession to City and hold strong defensively. 

Accordingly, expect a low-scoring contest on Sunday, with both teams playing a midweek contest. 

Man City Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Sept. 18 vs. Inter Milan: 0-0, D (Champions League)
  • Sept. 14 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W
  • Aug. 31 at West Ham United: 3-1, W
  • Aug. 24 vs. Ipswich Town: 4-1, W
  • Aug. 18 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W

Arsenal Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Sept. 19 vs. Atalanta
  • Sept. 15 at Tottenham: 1-0, W
  • Aug. 31 vs. Brighton: 1-1, D
  • Aug. 24 at Aston Villa: 2-0, W
  • Aug. 17 vs. Wolves: 2-0, W

Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Manchester City odds and Arsenal odds!

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667
EPL Odds

EPL Early Payout

When betting on EPL Match Result odds, you can receive an early payout if your team takes a 2-0 lead.

Check your Promotions for more info!

jamie-foxx-latest-promo-9-24
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.