EPL Predictions: Today’s Best Underdog Moneyline Bets

The 2024-25 Premier League season is underway! 

Below, I’ll outline three historically profitable betting systems for betting big underdogs based EPL odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

EPL Predictions: Today’s Underdog Picks

Underdogs are Worth a Bet Early

To begin, this system is as its most profitable when the dog is priced between +203 and +961 in August or November through January.

If the underdog fits that initial designation, there are three additional criterion that makes the system further profitable:

• The previous head-to-head result was between -9 and -1
• The underdog’s previous game margin is between -1 and +2
• The favorite’s previous game margin is between -3 and +5

When the underdog fits all those criterion, they’re 114-303 SU for a 38% return on investment. Since 2015-16, the system has produced a positive return on investment in eight of nine seasons.

Current Picks: No matches.

2024-25 Record: 1-4 (-19.8% ROI)

Underdogs are Worth a Bet Late

When this system works, it produces an incredible return on investment.

There are four criterion bettors should look for before making this bet:

• The underdog’s game number is between 18 and 38
• The closing moneyline is between +415 and +1700
• The opposing team’s win percentage is between 45% and 71%
• The previous head-to-head result was between -1 and +1

Under those criterion, such underdogs are 59-265 SU, but they produce a 50.2% return on investment.

Sample only underdogs since the 2017-18 season and bettors will find they jump from 18.2% SU to 21.1% SU and from a 50.2% ROI to a 71.6% ROI.

Current Picks: No matches.

Bet Underdogs vs. Favorites Off Offensive Explosion

Chelsea’s six-goal output at Wolves on Matchday 2 inspired me to see if there’s evidence fading teams off a blowout offensive showing.

There is a case for fading those teams, but it has to occur under very specific circumstances.

To begin, look for underdogs that posted between a -4 and +0 goal differential in the previous head-to-head meeting. Additionally, the favorite should be playing with between three and nine days between games.

From there, bettors should look for three additional factors:

• The previous game the underdog was the favorite
• The favorite’s one-game goal streak is between 3 and 5 goals
• The underdog’s previous game margin is between +0 and +3

When those conditions are met, the underdog is 37-118 SU since 2012 for a 69.6% ROI. Since 2017, these underdogs improve to 29-73 SU for a 112% ROI.

Current Matches: Brighton & Hove Albion (+340) at Chelsea (Sept. 28)