EPL Predictions, Odds: 4 Premier League Betting Systems

min read
Manchester City's Erling Haaland waves to fans after a friendly match against Atletico Madrid at the Seoul World Cup Stadium in Seoul, South Korea, Sunday, July 30, 2023. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon, File)
(AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 13, 2024, 12:11 PM
  • The occasion where bettors should bet on a sizable road underdog.
  • Two instances in which Premier League bettors should back a home favorite.
  • Why bettors should fade teams that win in spite of their defense.

The 2023-24 Premier League season is nearly over, but there’s still time for bettors to boost their bankroll. 

Below, I’ll outline five historically profitable betting systems bettors can use to evaluate EPL odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook

EPL Predictions – Premier League Betting Systems

Blind Bet the Big Underdog

History suggests that when teams keep their market status from the previous game, it’s wise to bet the underdog.

Since the 2012-13 season, dogs priced at +1.5 or +2 with juice between +150 and -149 are 142-86-16 ATS, assuming they closed an underdog in their previous game, the opponent closed as a favorite and their win percentage is under 40%.

This system has proved especially profitable in what we know as the modern Premier League. Since the 2018-19 season, these underdogs are 79-44-5 ATS (64.8%).

Within that sample, it’s worth noting road teams are 47-25-2 ATS for a 27.8% return on investment.

Current Matches: No current matches. 

Fade Teams Off Narrow Win in Spite of Defense

When a team wins a high-scoring game, it’s historically wise to fade those teams from a moneyline standpoint. 

Since the 2012-13 Premier League season, favorites off a one-goal win that allowed two or more goals in their previous game are 70-69 SU (50.4%) in their next game. 

It’s particularly profitable fading these teams away from home and when they’re underdogs. Those sides are 31-102 SU on the road in such situations compared to 48-47 at home. 

Additionally, underdogs that won a high-scoring game are 9-80 SU. However, both situations produce a negative return on investment.

Current Matches: FADE Chelsea at Brighton (May 15)

Short Home Favorites Off a Loss

The dictionary definition of a buy-low opportunity: taking a favorite off a loss. 

Since 2012-13, these favorites are 242-162 SU immediately following a defeat. In the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons, they’re 58-26 SU (69.5%). 

One important note: This system only samples home favorites sitting between -200 and +105. 

Current Matches: No current matches. 

Mid-Range Home Favorites vs. Team Off Win

Essentially, this system suggests backing teams against a dog off a win as favorites. 

Since 2012-13, home favorites sitting between -106 and -215 facing a team that won as favorites are 132-63 SU (68%). 

When the home favorite failed to win their previous game, they’re an impressive 80-32 SU over that same timeframe. 

This system has proved exceptionally profitable in the 2023-24 Premier League system. 

Although it’s only a 26-game sample, the favorites are 21-5 SU in such spots and have earned a point in 24 of those 26 games. 

Current Matches: No current matches.

Premier League Betting

You can get closer to the pitch with Premier League betting at BetMGM.

The sportsbook has a variety of odds available throughout the season, including over/under totals, live betting, player props, and more. And with futures available during the summer, there’s never a break in the EPL betting action.

Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome offer — to start betting. And always check your new account for updated sportsbook promos and bonuses.

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.