- Get my EPL Predictions for current Premier League underdog best bets
- The historically profitable system for betting underdogs early in the season.
- The high risk, high reward strategy for betting underdogs late in the season.
The 2024-25 Premier League season is underway!
Below, I’ll outline three historically profitable betting systems for betting big underdogs based EPL odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
EPL Predictions: Today’s Underdog Picks
Underdogs are Worth a Bet Early
To begin, this system is as its most profitable when the dog is priced between +203 and +961 in August or November through January.
If the underdog fits that initial designation, there are three additional criterion that makes the system further profitable:
- The previous head-to-head result was between -9 and -1
- The underdog’s previous game margin is between -1 and +2
- The favorite’s previous game margin is between -3 and +5
When the underdog fits all those criterion, they’re 114-303 SU for a 38% return on investment. Since 2015-16, the system has produced a positive return on investment in eight of nine seasons.
Current Picks: No matches.
2024-25 Record: 1-4 (-19.8% ROI)
Underdogs are Worth a Bet Late
When this system works, it produces an incredible return on investment.
There are four criterion bettors should look for before making this bet:
- The underdog’s game number is between 18 and 38
- The closing moneyline is between +415 and +1700
- The opposing team’s win percentage is between 45% and 71%
- The previous head-to-head result was between -1 and +1
Under those criterion, such underdogs are 59-265 SU, but they produce a 50.2% return on investment.
Sample only underdogs since the 2017-18 season and bettors will find they jump from 18.2% SU to 21.1% SU and from a 50.2% ROI to a 71.6% ROI.
Current Picks: No matches.
Bet Underdogs vs. Favorites Off Offensive Explosion
Chelsea’s six-goal output at Wolves on Matchday 2 inspired me to see if there’s evidence fading teams off a blowout offensive showing.
There is a case for fading those teams, but it has to occur under very specific circumstances.
To begin, look for underdogs that posted between a -4 and +0 goal differential in the previous head-to-head meeting. Additionally, the favorite should be playing with between three and nine days between games.
From there, bettors should look for three additional factors:
- The previous game the underdog was the favorite
- The favorite’s one-game goal streak is between 3 and 5 goals
- The underdog’s previous game margin is between +0 and +3
When those conditions are met, the underdog is 37-118 SU since 2012 for a 69.6% ROI. Since 2017, these underdogs improve to 29-73 SU for a 112% ROI.
Current Matches: Brighton & Hove Albion (+340) at Chelsea (Sept. 28)
Premier League Betting
You can get closer to the pitch with Premier League betting at BetMGM.
The sportsbook has a variety of odds available throughout the season, including over/under totals, live betting, player props, and more. And with futures available during the summer, there’s never a break in the EPL betting action.
Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome offer — to start betting. And always check your new account for updated sportsbook promos and bonuses.
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