EPL Predictions, Odds: 4 Premier League Betting Systems

The 2023-24 Premier League season is nearly over, but there’s still time for bettors to boost their bankroll. 

Below, I’ll outline five historically profitable betting systems bettors can use to evaluate EPL odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

EPL Predictions – Premier League Betting Systems

Blind Bet the Road Underdog

History suggests that when teams keep their market status from the previous game, it’s wise to bet the underdog.

Since the 2012-13 season, dogs priced at +1.5, +2 or +2.5 with juice between +150 and -150 are 60.3% ATS, assuming they closed an underdog in their previous game and the opponent closed as a favorite.

This system has proved especially profitable in what we know as the modern Premier League. Since the 2018-19 season, these underdogs are 96-56-7 ATS (63.2%) for a 21.8% return on investment.

Within that sample, it’s worth noting road teams are 60-34-3 ATS for a 24% return on investment.

Current Matches: Tottenham (May 5), Fulham (May 11)

Fade Teams Off Win in Spite of Defense

When a team wins a high-scoring game, it’s historically wise to fade those teams from a moneyline standpoint. 

Since the 2012-13 Premier League season, teams off a win that allowed two or more goals in their previous game are 128-195 SU (39.6%) in their next game. 

It’s particularly profitable fading these teams away from home and when they’re underdogs. Those sides are 58-132 SU on the road in such situations compared to 70-63 at home. 

Additionally, underdogs that won a high-scoring game are 19-109 SU compared to 109-86 as a favorite. However, both situations produce a negative return on investment.

Current Matches: Arsenal (May 4)

Short Home Favorites Off a Loss

The dictionary definition of a buy-low opportunity: taking a favorite off a loss. 

Since 2012-13, these favorites are 241-161 SU immediately following a defeat. In the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons, they’re 57-25 SU (69.5%). 

One important note: This system only samples home favorites sitting between -200 and +105. Over the former time period, such teams are 577-515 SU (52.8%), irrespective of their moneyline. 

Current Matches: No current matches. 

Mid-Range Home Favorites vs. Team Off Win

Essentially, this system suggests backing teams against a dog off a win as favorites. 

Since 2012-13, home favorites sitting between -106 and -215 facing a team that won as favorites are 132-62 SU (68%). 

When the home favorite failed to win their previous game, they’re an impressive 80-32 SU over that same timeframe. 

This system has proved exceptionally profitable in the 2023-24 Premier League system. 

Although it’s only a 25-game sample, the favorites are 21-4 SU in such spots and have earned a point in 23 of those 25 games. 

Current Matches: None