Man City vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

The marquee fixture of EPL Matchday 20 pits Man City against Chelsea at the Etihad Stadium. 

For City, the match offers a chance for a ninth straight Premier League home victory. Eight of those victories have come by multiple goals. 

Last season, City beat Chelsea in both head-to-head meetings. These sides met in January at this venue with City claiming a 3-1 win over the Blues. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs Chelsea prediction. 

Man City vs Chelsea: Premier League Odds

Chelsea vs Man City: Prediction

Based on Chelsea’s troubling defensive record and City’s success at home, my Man City vs Chelsea prediction is the Man City Moneyline (-155). 

The biggest mismatch in this fixture is the City attack against Chelsea’s defense. 

Enzo Maresca’s side has now conceded at least two post-shot expected goals in three straight matches. Even more concerning – only one of those matches came on the road. 

Chelsea could (theoretically) steal points in this match. However, City’s failures this season have come when the attack doesn’t show up. 

Perhaps it’s an oversimplification, but City has yet to lose this season when scoring at least two goals. Otherwise, Pep Guardiola’s outfit is 1-1-4 (W-D-L). 

Additionally, City has posted dominant metrics at home. The title chasers lead the Premier League with 19.4 expected goals at home and a +1.2 xGDiff per 90 at home. 

Conversely, Chelsea owns a +0.2 xGDiff per 90 on the road despite ranking eighth in road expected goals allowed. 

Chelsea also rates out a massive negative regression candidate on the road. Maresca’s team has posted a +7 road goal differential against a +1.8 xGDiff. 

A chance exists that regression comes against a side that dominated them in the last meeting. 

The hosts captured an aforementioned 3-1 win with a 2.5-1.8 xG edge and 2.35-1.82 post-shot xG edge. 

Only once all season has Chelsea faced a team owning a +1 xGDiff per 90 or better at home. Although the match featured some oddities, Chelsea fell 2-1 at Man United. 

Given those factors, I predict Man City claims all three points at home.