- Newcastle is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home favorite against Crystal Palace.
- Newcastle has scored at least once in every home fixture this season.
- My Newcastle vs Crystal Palace prediction is Newcastle Over 1.5 Goals (-130).
Newcastle looks for a seventh straight home result as short favorites to Crystal Palace.
Eddie Howe’s Newcastle raced out to a 2-0 lead on Tuesday against Burnley. Ultimately, the visitors captured a 3-1 win over the relegation candidates.
Now, Newcastle will try for a fifth home win in its last eight at St. James’ Park. When these teams last met on Tyneside, Newcastle throttled Palace 5-0.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Newcastle vs Crystal Palace prediction.
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace: Premier League Odds
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle: Prediction
Based on Newcastle’s home attacking success and Crystal Palace’s potential defensive regression, my Newcastle vs Crystal Palace prediction is Newcastle Over 1.5 Goals (-130).
No team has traveled to St. James’ Park and kept a clean sheet this season. Over that nine-match sample, Newcastle has cleared 1.5 goals seven times, including six straight.
By expected goals, only three teams have created more than Newcastle on home turf. In fact, Howe’s attack has run slightly unlucky at home, scoring 16 goals off 16.7 expected.
Irrespective of venue, Newcastle has finished 3.4 goals under its post-shot expectation. That qualifies as the third-highest underperformance in the league.
Now they get a Crystal Palace defense that has looked inconsistent on the road.
Palace has kept all but two teams under this benchmark away from home. However, the defense just surrendered four tallies at Leeds.
Additionally, Palace has run relatively lucky defensively.
Away from home, Oliver Glasner’s team has conceded only nine goals compared to 12.3 expected goals against.
When these teams last met, Newcastle blitzed Palace for five goals at home. Over the last two games at St. James’ Park, Newcastle has averaged 2.7 post-shot xG per 90.
If that weren’t enough, Newcastle owns a rest advantage over Palace. Howe’s team played Tuesday at Burnley while Palace travels on short rest after a Thursday home fixture.
Accordingly, I predict Newcastle’s attacking success continues at home.
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