Man City vs. Tottenham Prediction, Odds: Premier League Betting

The marquee Premier League fixture of Matchday 12 pits Manchester City against Tottenham in Manchester. 

City finds itself in a bit of a crisis. Pep Guardiola’s side has lost four in a row in all competitions, including a 2-1 defeat at Brighton before the break. 

Tottenham aren’t in much better form. Following a convincing home win over Aston Villa, Ange Postecoglou’s side dropped all three points in a 2-1 loss to Ipswich Town. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs. Tottenham prediction. 

Premier League Odds: Man City vs. Tottenham

Premier League Betting: Man City vs. Tottenham Prediction

Based on City’s strong record off a loss and Tottenham’s defensive injuries, my Man City vs. Tottenham prediction is a SGP: Man City Moneyline & Under 5.5 Goals (-125). 

The scoreline said City lost 2-1 at Brighton before the break, but the underlying metrics said City dominated the match. 

With a less-than-full-strength lineup, City still managed to edge out the Seagulls 2.98-1.55 on post-shot expected goals, per fotmob.com. 

After that match, Pep Guardiola went so far as to say City played well. Now, they may return as many as eight first-team players into the fold. 

History tells us this is a great spot to back the hosts. Since 2012, home favorites between -245 and +112 with nine, 14 or 15 days between games are 96-38. 

Here’s the kicker: When the opponent closed a market favorite in the previous game, those teams improved to 48-12 SU, including 19-6 since 2018. 

Another historically profitable system says to bet City on Saturday. 

Over the same period, favorites between -220 and -110 off a loss by one, three, or four goals are 60-22 SU, assuming two factors:

• The opponent’s previous game margin falls between -4 and -1
• The favorite’s margin in the last head-to-head meeting falls between +0 and +2

When those teams play at home: 46-17 SU, including 11 straight outright victories. 

Another major concern for Tottenham is that central defender Micky van de Ven likely won’t play on Saturday. 

Last season, Tottenham finished 1-1-4 (W-D-L) in road fixtures without the Dutch defender. 

Included in that sample is a trip to City, which finished 3-3 but saw City win 2.25-1.18 on post-shot expected goals. 

City is 18-0 at home off a loss under Guardiola, so I’ll take City to win on Saturday. For a pairing, use under 5.5 goals, which has cashed in every City match this year.