Man United vs Man City Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

EPL Matchday 22 opens with the latest edition of the Manchester Derby at Old Trafford. 

Both teams enter Saturday’s game off failures as favorites. Manchester United drew 2-2 at Burnley in its first match without Ruben Amorim. 

Man City took a 1-0 lead against Brighton at home, but drew 1-1 against the Seagulls. Currently, City trails league leaders Arsenal by six points. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Man United vs Man City prediction. 

Man United vs Man City: Premier League Odds

Man City vs Man United: Prediction

Based on Man City’s scheduling spot and the injury crisis in defense, my Man United vs Man City prediction is the Man United Moneyline (+280). 

The spot is terrible for Pep Guardiola’s outfit. City, beginning on January 10, plays four games over a 10-day span. 

That includes a League Cup tie at Newcastle on the 13th, followed by a trip to United on the 17th. Then, City plays at Bodo/Glimt in the Champions League on the 20th. 

Under normal circumstances, it wouldn’t prove much of a concern. However, Guardiola’s unit is currently missing a number of key defensive pieces. 

Josko Gvardiol, Ruben Dias, John Stones and Mateo Kovacic all possess long-term injuries. Additionally, wing-back Rayan Ait-Nouri remains away at AFCON. 

That presents a problem against a United side that has recorded strong metrics as a dog this year. 

Albeit under Amorim, the Red Devils traveled to Anfield and beat Liverpool 2-1. They also won the expected goals battle against Arsenal in a 1-0 defeat as home underdogs. 

That result marks one of only two losses at home for United. The other failure came in a fluky 1-0 loss against Everton, which played down a man for over an hour. 

Additionally, it’s my perspective that the market is overreacting to United’s result at Burnley. The match finished 2-2, but United won the xG battle 2.5-0.3 and the psxG battle 2.4-0.8. 

Bruno Fernandes is also fully healthy, and City has dropped all three points three times on the road. 

Historical trends also suggest United is alive to pull the upset. Dogs off a draw as a favorite are 21-30 SU since 2012, assuming a couple factors:

• The closing moneyline falls between +270 and +410
• The opponent’s previous game margin falls between -3 and +1
• The favorite’s win percentage falls between 34% and 66%

Add in the revenge angle for United – City won 3-0 earlier this year – and I predict they challenge City as a home dog.