- Brighton is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home favorite against Bournemouth.
- Bournemouth has conceded at least one goal in each of its last 10 EPL night matches.
- My Brighton vs Bournemouth prediction is Brighton Over 1.5 Goals (-140).
After stealing a point against Man City, Brighton returns home to face Bournemouth.Â
The Seagulls fell behind against Man City, but won the second half to take a point. It marks the third straight result for Brighton, which currently sits 11th in the table.Â
Bournemouth stormed back to win 3-2 against Tottenham on Matchday 21. That win ended an 11-match winless skid for the Cherries, which beat Brighton 2-1 at home.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Brighton vs Bournemouth prediction.Â
Brighton vs Bournemouth: Premier League Odds
Bournemouth vs Brighton: Prediction
Based on Bournemouth’s weak defensive record away from home and Brighton’s improving health in attack, my Brighton vs Bournemouth prediction is Brighton Over 1.5 Goals (-140).Â
No team has conceded more expected goals away from home than Bournemouth.Â
Andoni Iraola’s side has kept only one clean sheet away from home and has allowed multiple goals in seven straight road fixtures.Â
That sample includes performances against weak attacks. Sunderland scored three, Brentford scored four and Leeds United scored twice.Â
By home expected goals, Brighton and Leeds arrive as comparable attacks. Regardless of venue, Brighton ranks between Brentford and Manchester United on post-shot xG.Â
Additionally, Brighton could see some positive regression in attack soon. Opposing goalkeepers denied Brighton 2.4 goals above its post-shot expectation.Â
Only four teams have experienced greater misfortune in the league this season.Â
Both United and Brentford scored four times against Bournemouth’s defense. By post-shot xG, those teams each created 3.3 post-shot xG, per fbref.com.Â
Bettors have also seen Brighton best this number against superior defenses. The attack reached three tallies against Aston Villa on 2.2 post-shot xG.Â
Against Brentford: two goals off 1.6 post-shot xG.Â
In its last six against Bournemouth, Brighton cleared this benchmark four times. Both failures came away from home.Â
Accordingly, I predict success for an attack that has overtaken this line seven times in 10 home fixtures this year.
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