- Wolves is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home underdog against Newcastle.
- Newcastle has lost four of its last six EPL matches as an away favorite.
- My Wolves vs Newcastle prediction is the Wolves Moneyline (+333).
Newcastle will try to complete the league double on Sunday against last-place Wolves.
Eddie Howe’s outfit has earned three straight league wins, buoyed by at least two expected goals in all three. Currently, the Magpies sit sixth in the Premier League.
Wolves stole a point at Everton in its last league match. That result gives Wolves five points over its last three matches compared to two in its first 18.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Wolves vs Newcastle prediction.
Wolves vs Newcastle: Premier League Odds
Newcastle vs Wolves: Prediction
Based on Wolves’ potential positive regression and their underlying defensive metrics, my Wolves vs Newcastle prediction is the Wolves Moneyline (+333).
Only West Ham has allowed more goals than Wolves this season. But Wolves have run wildly unlucky defensively in the league.
The current cellar dwellers have allowed 41 goals off 29 expected. The latter metric places Wolves 10th in the expected goals allowed table.
Even by post-shot expected goals – which only counts shots on target – Wolves ranks 16th at 30.4. Also worth noting – Wolves keepers have conceded 6.6 goals over its post-shot xG rating.
Recently, Wolves have shown up well defensively against better attacks. Arsenal, Brentford and Liverpool all finished under 1.5 expected goals.
When these teams last played, Newcastle created only 1.5 expected goals at home in a 1-0 win. That qualifies as the only match this season where Newcastle won scoring under 1.5 goals.
Additionally, Newcastle has posted wildly unimpressive road attacking metrics. At 9.9 road xGF, Newcastle ranks seventh-worst in the Premier League.
Meanwhile, only two sides have created more xG at home than Newcastle.
If the positive defensive regression arrives for Wolves, it could spell trouble for Newcastle on short rest.
As recently as November, Newcastle fell 3-1 as a road favorite against West Ham. Given those factors, Wolves likely offer higher win equity than these odds suggest.
EPL Early Payout
When betting on EPL Match Result odds, you can receive an early payout if your team takes a 2-0 lead.
Check your Promotions for more info!
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
