- Newcastle is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home favorite against Aston Villa.
- Newcastle United has scored at least one goal in 11 straight home matches.
- My Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction is Newcastle Over 1.5 Goals (-130).
After a poor showing against Wolves, Newcastle will return home to face Aston Villa.Â
Eddie Howe’s Magpies continued their road struggles on Matchday 22. As a road favorite, Newcastle drew 0-0 against 20th-placed Wolves with only two shots on target.Â
Villa also suffered a setback on Sunday, falling 1-0 as a -165 home favorite to Everton. Since December, Unai Emery’s Villa has kept only a single clean sheet.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction.Â
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: Premier League Odds
Aston Villa vs Newcastle: Prediction
Based on Newcastle’s attacking success at home and Villa’s poor road defensive record, my Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction is Newcastle Over 1.5 Goals (-130).Â
It may sound a bit crazy, but Newcastle faces an easier defense in this match than at Wolves. Only seven teams have surrendered more expected goals than Villa through 22 matches.Â
Away from home, Emery’s defense has recorded concerning metrics. Only twice all year has Villa kept a road clean sheet, both of which were undeserved by expected goals.Â
As it stands, six teams have surrendered a higher xGA tally away from home than Villa. Since Dec. 3, Villa has allowed three teams to clear this benchmark in five road matches.Â
Newcastle, meanwhile, owns markedly better attacking stats at home. Only Manchester City and Brentford have created more expected goals at home than Newcastle.Â
Howe’s attack has cleared this benchmark in eight straight at home and nine of 11 overall.Â
In Villa’s last two trips to St. James’ Park, the defense allowed eight total goals. One of those saw Villa play down a man for an hour and change, but the defense allowed five two years ago.Â
Not much has changed about Villa’s defensive personnel since that failure. Additionally, Newcastle enters this match with a massive scheduling advantage.Â
The hosts play a home Champions League match on Wednesday. Villa faces a trip to Turkey on Thursday in the Europa League.Â
Villa last faced a back-to-back road spot on short rest at West Ham. Against a markedly worse attack, the defense allowed two goals inside 25 minutes.Â
Pair that performance with Newcastle’s attacking success at home, and I predict Newcastle clears this benchmark for the ninth straight home fixture.Â
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