Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Liverpool's Diogo Jota, left, celebrates scoring his sides second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Burnley and Liverpool at Turf Moor stadium in Burnley, England, Tuesday, Dec. 26, 2023.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 29, 2024, 2:22 PM
  • Liverpool is a -0.5-goal favorite against Nottingham Forest.
  • Can Liverpool overcome multiple key injuries to stay in the title race?
  • How to back home underdogs Forest in this match.

Before Saturday’s kickoff from The City Ground, I’m set to offer a Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool prediction. 

Visitors Liverpool enter this game in good form. Following a 4-1 league in over Luton Town, they captured a League Cup Final win over Chelsea and beat Southampton in the FA Cup. 

As for Forest, they suffered a heartbreaking 1-0 loss in the FA Cup round of 16 against Manchester United and have dropped all three points in two of their last three league matches. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest

  • Liverpool Moneyline: -190
  • Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +450
  • Draw Moneyline: +360
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)

EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest 1H Spread (+0.5, -135)

Liverpool, despite their current form, have so many injuries to overcome for this match. 

All of the following normal starters will likely miss Saturday’s match: Mo Salah, Darwin Nunez, Diogo Jota, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Wataru Endo, Ryan Gravenberch, Curtis Jones, Alisson Becker and Dominik Szoboszlai. 

As a result, I think Forest are a live underdog for Saturday’s fixture. However, I’ll opt to take them in the first half rather than +1.25 for the full game. 

In their last five matches, Liverpool have earned an outright win only once (at Brentford). 

Even in two home fixtures against Burnley and Luton Town – sides with worse underlying metrics than Nottingham Forest – they’ve finished 0-1-1 (W-D-L) in the first half. 

Although Forest is a dismal 2-5 ATS as home underdogs at market close this season, they’ve proved quite good in the first half. 

In those seven games, they’re 5-2 ATS in the first half, including two straight covers against Arsenal and Manchester United. 

Plus, in a midweek FA Cup fixture against the Red Devils, they entered halftime tied 0-0 before losing in the 89th minute. 

The underlying metrics back up Forest’s first half prowess as well – the Tricky Tress have posted a -0.28 post shot expected goal differential per 90 minutes, per fotmob.com. 

As a result, I’ll trust them to continue their positive form and enter halftime either ahead or tied with the league leaders. 

Liverpool Form 

Feb. 28 vs. Southampton: 3-0, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 25 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W (League Cup, AET)

Feb. 21 vs. Luton Town: 4-1, W

Feb. 17 at Brentford: 4-1, W

Feb. 10 vs. Burnley: 3-1, W

Nottingham Forest Form

Feb. 28 vs. Manchester United: 0-1, L (FA Cup)

Feb. 24 at Aston Villa: 2-4, L 

Feb. 17 vs. West Ham United: 2-0, W

Feb. 10 vs. Newcastle United: 2-3, L

Feb. 7 vs. Bristol City: 1-1, D (FA Cup, Forest Win on Penalties)

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Luton TownBrentfordApr. 2010:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedBurnleyApr. 2010:00 AMBramall Lane
WolvesArsenalApr. 202:30 PMMolineux Stadium
EvertonNottingham ForestApr. 218:30 AMGoodison Park
Aston VillaBournemouthApr. 2110:00 AMVilla Park
Crystal PalaceWest Ham UnitedApr. 2110:00 AMSelhurst Park
FulhamLiverpoolApr. 2111:30 AMCraven Cottage
ArsenalChelseaApr. 233:00 PMEmirates Stadium
WolvesBournemouthApr. 242:45 PMMolineux Stadium
Crystal PalaceNewcastle UnitedApr. 243:00 PMSelhurst Park
EvertonLiverpoolApr. 243:00 PMGoodison Park
Manchester UnitedSheffield UnitedApr. 243:00 PMOld Trafford
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester CityApr. 253:00 PMAmex Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Arsenal FC22-5-57149---
Liverpool FC21-8-37141---
Aston Villa FC19-6-86319---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1148-6---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Wolves12-7-1343-5---
Fulham FC12-6-1542-2---
Bournemouth11-9-1242-10---
Crystal Palace8-9-1533-17---
Brentford8-8-1732-11---
Everton9-8-1527-158 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1726-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2025-24---
Burnley FC4-8-2120-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2216-54---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal18-13.5818-7.53310-6.625
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Bournemouth18-12-2.5949-6-2.5889-6.600
Brentford12-19-2.3946-10-1.3826-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Burnley13-19-1.4094-12-1.2659-7.563
Chelsea15-16.48410-6.6255-10.333
Crystal Palace15-17.4696-9.4009-8.529
Everton14-18.4387-8.4677-10.412
Fulham17-15-1.53010-5-1.6567-10.412
Liverpool16-16.5009-8.5297-8.467
Luton Town21-11-1.65212-4.7509-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-17-2.4555-11-1.3249-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-16.51510-7.5887-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-15-1.5168-7.5339-7-1.559

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.