Manchester City vs. Manchester United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

It’s this weekend’s marquee Premier League match, and I’m here to offer a Manchester City vs. Manchester United prediction. 

City produced a 6-2 midweek FA Cup win over Luton Town on the heels of a 1-0 win at Bournemouth last weekend. 

As for United, they dropped all three points at home to Fulham last weekend after reeling off four consecutive league wins. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Sunday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Manchester City vs. Manchester United

• Manchester City Moneyline: -350
• Manchester United Moneyline: +850
• Draw Moneyline: +500
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-105/-135)

EPL Prediction – Manchester City vs. Manchester United

Manchester City Spread (-1.5, -140)

United has looked terrible on the road against good competition in recent memory. 

Since the beginning of the 2021-22 season, United is a dismal 4-11 ATS away from home against sides with a win percentage higher than 45%, including 2-3 this season. 

Just at Liverpool and Arsenal this season – the closest comparisons to City – United is 0-1-1 (W-D-L) with a -3.9 expected goal differential and a -2.3 post shot expected goal differential, per fbref.com. 

Plus, City matches a pair of historically profitable systems. 

Since the 2017-18 season, home favorites with a win percentage north of 59% facing a side off a draw or loss as home favorites are 81.6% SU. 

Moreover, rarely do underdogs notch points after receiving a beatdown in the previous meeting. 

Since 2017-18, home favorites in games 20-39 that won by at least three goals in the previous meeting are 20-5 SU, assuming their win percentage is higher than 65%. 

Based on those factors, City should unquestionably win this match. The key question: by how many goals?

If you change the former system from the moneyline to spread – sampling teams -2 or shorter – bettors will find those teams are 68% ATS, including 4-2 ATS this season. 

When the opponent is coming off a loss, such teams are 64% ATS. 

As a result, lay the goals with City on Sunday so long as it remains available at -145 or better. 

Manchester City Form 

Feb. 27 at Luton Town: 6-2, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 24 at Bournemouth: 1-0, W

Feb. 20 vs. Brentford: 1-0, W

Feb. 17 vs. Chelsea: 1-1, D

Feb. 13 at Copenhagen: 3-1, W (Champions League

Manchester United Form

Feb. 24 vs. Fulham: 1-2, L

Feb. 18 at Luton Town: 2-1, W

Feb. 11 at Aston Villa: 2-1, W

Feb. 4 vs. West Ham United: 3-0, W

Feb. 1 at Wolves: 4-3, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

EPL Standings

EPL ATS Records