Manchester City vs. Manchester United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Manchester City's head coach Pep Guardiola, right, gives instructions to Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne during the English FA Cup third round soccer match between Manchester City and Huddersfield Town, at the Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024.
(Dave Thompson/AP Photo)
  • Manchester City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
  • City defeated United 3-0 at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture.
  • Historical systems suggest United is unlikely to win at the Etihad.

Itโ€™s this weekend’s marquee Premier League match, and Iโ€™m here to offer a Manchester City vs. Manchester United prediction.ย 

City produced a 6-2 midweek FA Cup win over Luton Town on the heels of a 1-0 win at Bournemouth last weekend.ย 

As for United, they dropped all three points at home to Fulham last weekend after reeling off four consecutive league wins.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Sundayโ€™s fixture.ย 

EPL Betting Odds – Manchester City vs. Manchester United

  • Manchester City Moneyline: -350
  • Manchester United Moneyline: +850
  • Draw Moneyline: +500
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-105/-135)

EPL Prediction – Manchester City vs. Manchester United

Manchester City Spread (-1.5, -140)

United has looked terrible on the road against good competition in recent memory.ย 

Since the beginning of the 2021-22 season, United is a dismal 4-11 ATS away from home against sides with a win percentage higher than 45%, including 2-3 this season.ย 

Just at Liverpool and Arsenal this season โ€“ the closest comparisons to City โ€“ United is 0-1-1 (W-D-L) with a -3.9 expected goal differential and a -2.3 post shot expected goal differential, per fbref.com.ย 

Plus, City matches a pair of historically profitable systems.ย 

Since the 2017-18 season, home favorites with a win percentage north of 59% facing a side off a draw or loss as home favorites are 81.6% SU.ย 

Moreover, rarely do underdogs notch points after receiving a beatdown in the previous meeting.ย 

Since 2017-18, home favorites in games 20-39 that won by at least three goals in the previous meeting are 20-5 SU, assuming their win percentage is higher than 65%.ย 

Based on those factors, City should unquestionably win this match. The key question: by how many goals?

If you change the former system from the moneyline to spread โ€“ sampling teams -2 or shorter โ€“ bettors will find those teams are 68% ATS, including 4-2 ATS this season.ย 

When the opponent is coming off a loss, such teams are 64% ATS.ย 

As a result, lay the goals with City on Sunday so long as it remains available at -145 or better.ย 

Manchester City Formย 

Feb. 27 at Luton Town: 6-2, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 24 at Bournemouth: 1-0, W

Feb. 20 vs. Brentford: 1-0, W

Feb. 17 vs. Chelsea: 1-1, D

Feb. 13 at Copenhagen: 3-1, W (Champions League

Manchester United Form

Feb. 24 vs. Fulham: 1-2, L

Feb. 18 at Luton Town: 2-1, W

Feb. 11 at Aston Villa: 2-1, W

Feb. 4 vs. West Ham United: 3-0, W

Feb. 1 at Wolves: 4-3, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

First Bet Offer $1,500 FBO
HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
BrightonChelseaFeb. 143 p.m.Amex Stadium
Leicester CityArsenalFeb. 157:30 a.m.King Power Stadium
Aston VillaIpswich TownFeb. 1510 a.m.Villa Park
FulhamNottingham ForestFeb. 1510 a.m.Craven Cottage
Man CityNewcastle UnitedFeb. 1510 a.m.Etihad Stadium
SouthamptonBournemouthFeb. 1510 a.m.St. Mary's Stadium
West Ham UnitedBrentfordFeb. 1510 a.m.London Stadium
Crystal PalaceEvertonFeb. 1512:30 p.m.Selhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesFeb. 169 a.m.Anfield
TottenhamManchester UnitedFeb. 1611:30 a.m.Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Liverpool17-5-15635
Arsenal14-8-25027
Nottingham Forest14-5-54713
Chelsea12-7-54316
Manchester City12-5-74113
Newcastle United12-5-74113
Bournemouth11-7-64013
Aston Villa10-7-737-3
Fulham9-9-6364
Brighton8-10-634-3
Brentford9-4-11310
Crystal Palace7-9-830-2
Manchester United8-5-1129-6
Tottenham8-3-132711
West Ham United7-6-1127-17
Everton6-8-926-5
Wolves5-4-1519-18
Leicester City3-5-1517-28
Ipswich Town3-7-1416-27
Southampton2-3-199-36

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS%Home ATS RecordHome ATS%Road ATS RecordRoad ATS%
Arsenal9-10-547.9%3-6-337.5%6-4-258.3%
Aston Villa8-15-135.4%3-8-129.2%5-7-041.7%
Bournemouth16-8-066.7%7-5-058.3%9-3-075.0%
Brentford14-8-262.5%8-5-061.5%6-3-263.6%
Brighton & Hove Albion12-11-152.1%4-7-036.4%8-4-165.4%
Chelsea9-13-241.7%4-7-137.5%5-6-145.8%
Crystal Palace13-8-360.4%4-5-345.8%9-3-075.0%
Everton12-9-256.5%6-5-154.2%6-4-159.1%
Fulham14-8-262.5%5-7-041.7%8-2-275.0%
Ipswich Town10-13-143.8%4-9-030.8%6-4-159.1%
Leicester City11-12-147.9%5-7-041.7%6-5-154.2%
Liverpool13-9-158.7%5-5-150.0%8-4-066.7%
Manchester City7-17-029.2%3-8-027.3%4-9-030.8%
Manchester United10-12-245.8%5-7-142.3%5-5-150.0%
Newcastle United13-10-156.3%7-5-058.3%6-5-154.2%
Nottingham Forest16-8-066.7%7-5-058.3%9-3-075.0%
Southampton9-12-343.8%2-8-122.7%7-4-261.5%
Tottenham Hotspur9-15-037.5%4-8-033.3%5-7-041.7%
West Ham United12-11-152.1%4-7-137.5%8-4-066.7%
Wolverhampton Wanderers10-12-245.8%5-6-145.8%5-6-145.8%

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.