- Manchester City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- City defeated United 3-0 at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture.
- Historical systems suggest United is unlikely to win at the Etihad.
Itโs this weekend’s marquee Premier League match, and Iโm here to offer a Manchester City vs. Manchester United prediction.ย
City produced a 6-2 midweek FA Cup win over Luton Town on the heels of a 1-0 win at Bournemouth last weekend.ย
As for United, they dropped all three points at home to Fulham last weekend after reeling off four consecutive league wins.ย
Hereโs a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Sundayโs fixture.ย
EPL Betting Odds – Manchester City vs. Manchester United
- Manchester City Moneyline: -350
- Manchester United Moneyline: +850
- Draw Moneyline: +500
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-105/-135)
EPL Prediction – Manchester City vs. Manchester United
Manchester City Spread (-1.5, -140)
United has looked terrible on the road against good competition in recent memory.ย
Since the beginning of the 2021-22 season, United is a dismal 4-11 ATS away from home against sides with a win percentage higher than 45%, including 2-3 this season.ย
Just at Liverpool and Arsenal this season โ the closest comparisons to City โ United is 0-1-1 (W-D-L) with a -3.9 expected goal differential and a -2.3 post shot expected goal differential, per fbref.com.ย
Plus, City matches a pair of historically profitable systems.ย
Since the 2017-18 season, home favorites with a win percentage north of 59% facing a side off a draw or loss as home favorites are 81.6% SU.ย
Moreover, rarely do underdogs notch points after receiving a beatdown in the previous meeting.ย
Since 2017-18, home favorites in games 20-39 that won by at least three goals in the previous meeting are 20-5 SU, assuming their win percentage is higher than 65%.ย
Based on those factors, City should unquestionably win this match. The key question: by how many goals?
If you change the former system from the moneyline to spread โ sampling teams -2 or shorter โ bettors will find those teams are 68% ATS, including 4-2 ATS this season.ย
When the opponent is coming off a loss, such teams are 64% ATS.ย
As a result, lay the goals with City on Sunday so long as it remains available at -145 or better.ย
Manchester City Formย
Feb. 27 at Luton Town: 6-2, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 24 at Bournemouth: 1-0, W
Feb. 20 vs. Brentford: 1-0, W
Feb. 17 vs. Chelsea: 1-1, D
Feb. 13 at Copenhagen: 3-1, W (Champions League
Manchester United Form
Feb. 24 vs. Fulham: 1-2, L
Feb. 18 at Luton Town: 2-1, W
Feb. 11 at Aston Villa: 2-1, W
Feb. 4 vs. West Ham United: 3-0, W
Feb. 1 at Wolves: 4-3, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
Brighton | Chelsea | Feb. 14 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
Leicester City | Arsenal | Feb. 15 | 7:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
Aston Villa | Ipswich Town | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Villa Park |
Fulham | Nottingham Forest | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
Man City | Newcastle United | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Southampton | Bournemouth | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
West Ham United | Brentford | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
Crystal Palace | Everton | Feb. 15 | 12:30 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
Liverpool | Wolves | Feb. 16 | 9 a.m. | Anfield |
Tottenham | Manchester United | Feb. 16 | 11:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
EPL Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
Liverpool | 17-5-1 | 56 | 35 |
Arsenal | 14-8-2 | 50 | 27 |
Nottingham Forest | 14-5-5 | 47 | 13 |
Chelsea | 12-7-5 | 43 | 16 |
Manchester City | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
Newcastle United | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
Bournemouth | 11-7-6 | 40 | 13 |
Aston Villa | 10-7-7 | 37 | -3 |
Fulham | 9-9-6 | 36 | 4 |
Brighton | 8-10-6 | 34 | -3 |
Brentford | 9-4-11 | 31 | 0 |
Crystal Palace | 7-9-8 | 30 | -2 |
Manchester United | 8-5-11 | 29 | -6 |
Tottenham | 8-3-13 | 27 | 11 |
West Ham United | 7-6-11 | 27 | -17 |
Everton | 6-8-9 | 26 | -5 |
Wolves | 5-4-15 | 19 | -18 |
Leicester City | 3-5-15 | 17 | -28 |
Ipswich Town | 3-7-14 | 16 | -27 |
Southampton | 2-3-19 | 9 | -36 |
EPL ATS Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
Arsenal | 9-10-5 | 47.9% | 3-6-3 | 37.5% | 6-4-2 | 58.3% |
Aston Villa | 8-15-1 | 35.4% | 3-8-1 | 29.2% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
Bournemouth | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
Brentford | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 6-3-2 | 63.6% |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 8-4-1 | 65.4% |
Chelsea | 9-13-2 | 41.7% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
Crystal Palace | 13-8-3 | 60.4% | 4-5-3 | 45.8% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
Everton | 12-9-2 | 56.5% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
Fulham | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 8-2-2 | 75.0% |
Ipswich Town | 10-13-1 | 43.8% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
Leicester City | 11-12-1 | 47.9% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
Liverpool | 13-9-1 | 58.7% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
Manchester City | 7-17-0 | 29.2% | 3-8-0 | 27.3% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% |
Manchester United | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
Newcastle United | 13-10-1 | 56.3% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
Nottingham Forest | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
Southampton | 9-12-3 | 43.8% | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 7-4-2 | 61.5% |
Tottenham Hotspur | 9-15-0 | 37.5% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
West Ham United | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
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