- Manchester City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- City defeated United 3-0 at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture.
- Historical systems suggest United is unlikely to win at the Etihad.
It’s this weekend’s marquee Premier League match, and I’m here to offer a Manchester City vs. Manchester United prediction.
City produced a 6-2 midweek FA Cup win over Luton Town on the heels of a 1-0 win at Bournemouth last weekend.
As for United, they dropped all three points at home to Fulham last weekend after reeling off four consecutive league wins.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Sunday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Manchester City vs. Manchester United
- Manchester City Moneyline: -350
- Manchester United Moneyline: +850
- Draw Moneyline: +500
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-105/-135)
EPL Prediction – Manchester City vs. Manchester United
Manchester City Spread (-1.5, -140)
United has looked terrible on the road against good competition in recent memory.
Since the beginning of the 2021-22 season, United is a dismal 4-11 ATS away from home against sides with a win percentage higher than 45%, including 2-3 this season.
Just at Liverpool and Arsenal this season – the closest comparisons to City – United is 0-1-1 (W-D-L) with a -3.9 expected goal differential and a -2.3 post shot expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Plus, City matches a pair of historically profitable systems.
Since the 2017-18 season, home favorites with a win percentage north of 59% facing a side off a draw or loss as home favorites are 81.6% SU.
Moreover, rarely do underdogs notch points after receiving a beatdown in the previous meeting.
Since 2017-18, home favorites in games 20-39 that won by at least three goals in the previous meeting are 20-5 SU, assuming their win percentage is higher than 65%.
Based on those factors, City should unquestionably win this match. The key question: by how many goals?
If you change the former system from the moneyline to spread – sampling teams -2 or shorter – bettors will find those teams are 68% ATS, including 4-2 ATS this season.
When the opponent is coming off a loss, such teams are 64% ATS.
As a result, lay the goals with City on Sunday so long as it remains available at -145 or better.
Manchester City Form
Feb. 27 at Luton Town: 6-2, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 24 at Bournemouth: 1-0, W
Feb. 20 vs. Brentford: 1-0, W
Feb. 17 vs. Chelsea: 1-1, D
Feb. 13 at Copenhagen: 3-1, W (Champions League
Manchester United Form
Feb. 24 vs. Fulham: 1-2, L
Feb. 18 at Luton Town: 2-1, W
Feb. 11 at Aston Villa: 2-1, W
Feb. 4 vs. West Ham United: 3-0, W
Feb. 1 at Wolves: 4-3, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
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