Manchester City vs. Manchester United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Manchester City's head coach Pep Guardiola, right, gives instructions to Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne during the English FA Cup third round soccer match between Manchester City and Huddersfield Town, at the Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024.
(Dave Thompson/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 28, 2024, 1:22 PM
  • Manchester City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
  • City defeated United 3-0 at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture.
  • Historical systems suggest United is unlikely to win at the Etihad.

It’s this weekend’s marquee Premier League match, and I’m here to offer a Manchester City vs. Manchester United prediction. 

City produced a 6-2 midweek FA Cup win over Luton Town on the heels of a 1-0 win at Bournemouth last weekend. 

As for United, they dropped all three points at home to Fulham last weekend after reeling off four consecutive league wins. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Sunday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Manchester City vs. Manchester United

  • Manchester City Moneyline: -350
  • Manchester United Moneyline: +850
  • Draw Moneyline: +500
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-105/-135)

EPL Prediction – Manchester City vs. Manchester United

Manchester City Spread (-1.5, -140)

United has looked terrible on the road against good competition in recent memory. 

Since the beginning of the 2021-22 season, United is a dismal 4-11 ATS away from home against sides with a win percentage higher than 45%, including 2-3 this season. 

Just at Liverpool and Arsenal this season – the closest comparisons to City – United is 0-1-1 (W-D-L) with a -3.9 expected goal differential and a -2.3 post shot expected goal differential, per fbref.com. 

Plus, City matches a pair of historically profitable systems. 

Since the 2017-18 season, home favorites with a win percentage north of 59% facing a side off a draw or loss as home favorites are 81.6% SU. 

Moreover, rarely do underdogs notch points after receiving a beatdown in the previous meeting. 

Since 2017-18, home favorites in games 20-39 that won by at least three goals in the previous meeting are 20-5 SU, assuming their win percentage is higher than 65%. 

Based on those factors, City should unquestionably win this match. The key question: by how many goals?

If you change the former system from the moneyline to spread – sampling teams -2 or shorter – bettors will find those teams are 68% ATS, including 4-2 ATS this season. 

When the opponent is coming off a loss, such teams are 64% ATS. 

As a result, lay the goals with City on Sunday so long as it remains available at -145 or better. 

Manchester City Form 

Feb. 27 at Luton Town: 6-2, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 24 at Bournemouth: 1-0, W

Feb. 20 vs. Brentford: 1-0, W

Feb. 17 vs. Chelsea: 1-1, D

Feb. 13 at Copenhagen: 3-1, W (Champions League

Manchester United Form

Feb. 24 vs. Fulham: 1-2, L

Feb. 18 at Luton Town: 2-1, W

Feb. 11 at Aston Villa: 2-1, W

Feb. 4 vs. West Ham United: 3-0, W

Feb. 1 at Wolves: 4-3, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Luton TownBrentfordApr. 2010:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedBurnleyApr. 2010:00 AMBramall Lane
WolvesArsenalApr. 202:30 PMMolineux Stadium
EvertonNottingham ForestApr. 218:30 AMGoodison Park
Aston VillaBournemouthApr. 2110:00 AMVilla Park
Crystal PalaceWest Ham UnitedApr. 2110:00 AMSelhurst Park
FulhamLiverpoolApr. 2111:30 AMCraven Cottage
ArsenalChelseaApr. 233:00 PMEmirates Stadium
WolvesBournemouthApr. 242:45 PMMolineux Stadium
Crystal PalaceNewcastle UnitedApr. 243:00 PMSelhurst Park
EvertonLiverpoolApr. 243:00 PMGoodison Park
Manchester UnitedSheffield UnitedApr. 243:00 PMOld Trafford
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester CityApr. 253:00 PMAmex Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Arsenal FC22-5-57149---
Liverpool FC21-8-37141---
Aston Villa FC19-6-86319---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1148-6---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Wolves12-7-1343-5---
Fulham FC12-6-1542-2---
Bournemouth11-9-1242-10---
Crystal Palace8-9-1533-17---
Brentford8-8-1732-11---
Everton9-8-1527-158 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1726-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2025-24---
Burnley FC4-8-2120-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2216-54---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal18-13.5818-7.53310-6.625
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Bournemouth18-12-2.5949-6-2.5889-6.600
Brentford12-19-2.3946-10-1.3826-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Burnley13-19-1.4094-12-1.2659-7.563
Chelsea15-16.48410-6.6255-10.333
Crystal Palace15-17.4696-9.4009-8.529
Everton14-18.4387-8.4677-10.412
Fulham17-15-1.53010-5-1.6567-10.412
Liverpool16-16.5009-8.5297-8.467
Luton Town21-11-1.65212-4.7509-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-17-2.4555-11-1.3249-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-16.51510-7.5887-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-15-1.5168-7.5339-7-1.559

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.