- Sunderland is predicted to be a +1.5-goal home underdog against Arsenal.
- Arsenal has won 24 of its last 25 Premier League matches against promoted teams.
- My Sunderland vs Arsenal prediction is Sunderland Under 0.5 Goals (-125).
Arsenal look to continue its strong form in the EPL as big road favorites against Sunderland.
Mikel Arteta’s side produced a 2-0 road win over Burnley on Matchday 10. That result kept Arsenal in the lead with 25 points, including 15 points from 15 in their last five.
Sunderland play a Monday fixture against Everton at home. With an ATS success, Regis Le Bris’ side would move to 5-0 ATS at the Stadium of Light this season.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Sunderland vs Arsenal prediction.
Sunderland vs Arsenal: Premier League Odds
Arsenal vs Sunderland: Prediction
Based on Sunderland’s wild luck in attack and Arsenal’s defensive strength this season, my Sunderland vs Arsenal prediction is Sunderland Under 0.5 Goals (-120).
Only three teams have scored against Arsenal this season. Those teams: Manchester City, Liverpool and Newcastle United.
That fact immediately creates a sell-high opportunity on Sunderland. Excluding Monday’s match, the EPL newcomers have failed to score in only three matches.
But Sunderland achieved that feat against a weak offensive schedule.
To date, they’ve played zero teams fifth or better in expected goals allowed. Le Bris’s team has also played only three games against teams 10th or better.
Sunderland failed to score in only one of those three matches. But, from an underlying metrics standpoint, they’ve run incredibly lucky against good defenses.
Against Wolves (7th), Crystal Palace (8th) and Aston Villa (10th), Sunderland scored three goals off two expected. In two of those three matches, they created under 0.6 xG.
Only once in that sample did Sunderland surpass one xG. That came in the easiest fixture of the bunch as home dogs to Villa.
Irrespective of opponent strength, Sunderland have scored 11 goals off 8.6 xG and 8.5 post-shot xG, per fbref.com.
Now they’re playing an Arsenal side first in expected goals allowed. No drastic home/road splits exist either, as Arsenal surrendered under 0.6 xGA in four of five away from home.
At 3.7 post-shot xG allowed, Arsenal healthily outpaces second place. No other team has allowed fewer than eight post-shot xG.
Accordingly, I predict Sunderland’s offensive luck runs out against the league’s best defense.
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
