- West Ham is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home underdog against Arsenal.
- Arsenal has scored at least one goal in each of its last 13 EPL matches.
- My West Ham vs Arsenal prediction is the Arsenal Moneyline (-160).
Arsenal will go for a second straight London Derby win on Sunday at West Ham.
The match offers implications at both ends of the table. Arsenal still possess the league lead following a 3-0 rout of Fulham last weekend. Earlier this year, they beat West Ham 2-0.
The Hammers fell 3-0 at Brentford on Matchday 35. After Tottenham beat Aston Villa on Sunday, West Ham dropped into the final relegation spot.
Check out the Premier League odds and my West Ham vs Arsenal prediction.
West Ham vs Arsenal: Premier League Odds
Arsenal vs West Ham: Prediction
Based on Arsenal’s overwhelming success against the Premier League’s worst teams, my West Ham vs Arsenal prediction is the Arsenal Moneyline (-160).
Six teams enter Matchday 36 with under 40 expected points this season, per Understat. Arsenal has thoroughly dominated those sides, even if the results suggest otherwise.
Through 10 matches against those six teams, Arsenal posted a 7-3-0 (W-D-L) record. All three draws proved very fluky based on the underlying metrics.
Mikel Arteta’s side drew 2-2 at Sunderland and Wolves. They added a 0-0 draw at Nottingham Forest to round out the three failures.
But Arsenal combined to post a +5.5 expected goal differential in those three matches vs. a +0 goal differential. In all three, Arsenal created at least two expected goals.
Across all 10 of those fixtures, Arsenal recorded a +1.88 expected goal differential per 90 minutes. On zero occasions did they finish within 0.5 xG of their opponent.
When Arsenal last played West Ham, the Hammers barely sniffed a goal. The Hammers created only 0.5 expected goals and failed to put a shot on target against the league’s best defense.
Arsenal benefitted from a penalty in that match, but I question how they drop points unless the defense regresses.
Right now, West Ham lacks the attacking firepower to exploit Arsenal. Only twice in the last six has West Ham cleared one xG – at home against Everton and Wolves.
Both those defenses rank in the bottom-half for expected goals against. Against a significantly better defense, I predict West Ham drops all three points at home.
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