3 Picks For the 2026 Wimbledon Quarterfinals

Wimbledon has now moved into its second week of matches, and the competitive intensity is about to go up another level.

With both the ATP and WTA singles draws each down to eight remaining players, there are no easy walks to the net remaining.

BetMGM’s Wimbledon odds for the eight quarterfinal matches are now available, and these are the tennis betting opportunities I like the most.

Jannik Sinner vs. Jan-Lennard Struff: Prediction, Odds

• Match Odds: Jannik Sinner -2500  |  Jannik Sinner -7.5 Games (-140)

Jannik Sinner is the defending Wimbledon champion and No. 1 player on tour right now, so it’s hard to make this moneyline market anything other than prohibitively large. I’m not one to shy away from betting chalky tennis numbers, but a -2500 entry point is pretty limiting.

That means bettors have to either look for attractive Struff plays or they’ve gotta lay a big spread with Sinner. Or, option 3: lay off entirely.

I like the Struff side of this match. Struff has been inconsistent on grass over the course of his career, but when his serve is landing well, he can be a tiebreak machine. And indeed, if you look at Struff’s most recent three matches from the last week at Wimbledon, 10 of his last 12 sets have gone 12 games or more.

You can also go back to Struff’s last match against Sinner, which was on the grass at Halle in 2024. Two of the three matches went to a tiebreak, including the decisive third set, which went Sinner’s way.

If Tuesday’s match comes down to tiebreakers, then it makes all the sense in the world to grab a piece of the Struff +950 moneyline and hope the metaphorical coin flips your way. But what makes more sense is to take the big +6.5 game spread at a still-rich +154, then add a totals position at Over 31.5 games. The total is probably the best value, since the -2500 moneyline price correlates to a short match.

Short? Please. Not if Struff keeps playing these tiebreakers. Sinner could win in straight sets, and this over could still easily cash with a tiebreaker or two.

Prediction: Jan-Lennard Struff +6.5 Games (+154); Over 31.5 Games (+105)

Naomi Osaka vs. Karolina Muchova: Prediction, Odds

• Match Odds: Naomi Osaka -135  |  Karolina Muchova +105

Karolina Muchova is having a career year. So why is she a short dog to Naomi Osaka?

Your answer to that question may imply a position in the game.

My analysis of the situation is that Osaka is older and has been less tour-relevant in recent years, but she’s still a four-time Slam winner with more Q-score. Osaka is 8-1 this grass season, and the market has fallen back in love with her power and aggression.

There’s just one little problem. That one loss? That was to Muchova, in the Bad Homburg title match. Muchova won the first set 6-1, and Osaka retired one game into the second set to ensure a minor injury to her right foot didn’t get worse ahead of Wimbledon.

Muchova, who’s riding an 8-match win streak before Tuesday’s quarterfinal, is arguably the hottest player left in the women’s bracket. She should be a short favorite in this match, and she should be taken seriously as a threat to lift the trophy at the end of this week.

Prediction: Karolina Muchova +105

Wimbledon Quarterfinal Best Bets 2026

• Jan-Lennard Struff +6.5 Games
• Struff vs. Sinner: Over 31.5 Games
• Karolina Muchova +105