- Netherlands is predicted to be a 0.5-goal favorite against Japan.
- Japan won five straight matches ahead of the World Cup, including against England.
- My Netherlands vs Japan prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (-118).
Japan will aim to continue its impressive run of results in a World Cup opener against the Netherlands.
The Blue Samurai showed recently it can thrive as the underdog. Friendlies against Brazil and England saw Japan win 3-2 and 1-0, respectively.
The Netherlands will try to avoid that fate on Matchday 1. Should Ronald Koeman’s team take all three points, it will end a five-match winning streak by Japan.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Netherlands vs Japan prediction.
Netherlands vs Japan: World Cup Odds
Japan vs Netherlands Prediction
Based on Japan’s extended break before the World Cup starts and the Netherlands’ lack of attacking prowess, my Netherlands vs Japan prediction is Under 2.5 Goals (-118).
I’m fascinated by this matchup as it pits strength against strength and weakness against weakness.
Japan played high-scoring fixtures at the 2022 World Cup as underdogs to Germany and Spain. Both finished over 2.5 goals, with Japan clearing 1.5 in both matches.
Pair that with the recent clash against Brazil, and I’m a little scared to step in front of the attack. However, I carry more confidence in the Dutch defense than Brazil’s unit.
On paper, the Netherlands offers a closer match to England’s defense. In Japan’s friendly against the Three Lions, the attack managed only 0.8 expected goals.
Plus, the success against Brazil came on home soil in a friendly. In a competitive environment, I wonder about Japan’s attack against a defense that allowed only six xG at the 2024 Euros.
At the same time, I question how the Dutch attack generates many chances.
Japan’s defense leaves a touch to be desired. However, the Netherlands lacked opportunities in qualifying against decent sides.
In two qualifiers against Poland, Koeman’s attack failed to clear 1.3 expected goals in both matches. That came despite over 60% possession in both fixtures.
My expectation? If Japan takes the lead, the Netherlands will subsequently struggle to break down a low block.
The Netherlands has the speed to keep up with Japan’s attacking trio. However, a defensive high line could lead to opportunities for Japan.
Conversely, if the Netherlands scores early, it possesses the defensive prowess to try and keep that advantage. Accordingly, I predict the match will finish under 2.5 goals.
Netherlands vs Japan Public Betting Data
| Moneyline | % of Bets | % of Money |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 51% | 45% |
| Draw | 13% | 11% |
| Japan | 36% | 44% |
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