College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Week 9

The final weekend of October brings an excellent set of college football games with value all over the board.

This is the most I’ve liked from BetMGM’s college football odds market since Week 1. Let’s talk about it. 

Boise State vs. Nevada Prediction

Boise State is 5-1 ATS as a favorite this year and just trucked previously undefeated UNLV. In its last trip to Reno, it beat Nevada 41-3.

Nevada is at the bottom of the Mountain West again this year, and this seems like a mismatch. Yes, you’ve got to lay the hook on top of the 21, but Boise’s run game should feast against Nevada’s defensive front, which ranks 128th in FBS in EPA/rush allowed.

Prediction: Boise State -21.5

Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss Prediction

Oklahoma is 7-0 to the under this season, and there are real market inefficiencies behind it. The perception of Oklahoma is that it’s a high-flying team with John Mateer playing quarterback and Ben Arbuckle calling the plays. The totals market responds with high numbers.

Mateer and Arbuckle have been good, but the reality is that Oklahoma plays good defense and runs the ball a lot. The defense ranks No. 1 nationally in EPA/pass allowed. With a total still in the mid-50s, there’s still plenty of room to run with this trend. I think the record will go to 8-0.

Prediction: Under 54.5

Nebraska vs. Northwestern Prediction

This feels like pure brand pricing. On the field, there’s not much that says Nebraska should lay a full touchdown to Northwestern. In fact, Northwestern should be able to win time of possession here by playing its conservative offense and just running it right at Nebraska’s bad run defense. At +0.06 EPA/rush allowed, Nebraska’s defensive front ranks outside the top 100.

I would make this closer to Nebraska -3, which means there’s a lot of value on both the spread and the moneyline. Even if the Wildcats don’t win in the end, I expect a competitive game. 

Prediction: Northwestern +7; Northwestern +220

Washington vs. Illinois Prediction

Illinois crept back into the AP Top 25 after last Saturday, but the gambling markets don’t care about all that. The Huskies are favored here, and as regular readers know, I’ll happily lay the points.

Prediction: Washington -4.5

Iowa State vs. BYU Prediction

This is a tougher Top 25 trend game to handicap. Iowa State is coming off a bye, and BYU has been flirting on the knife’s edge for weeks with some of these wins. But Iowa State has an unfixable problem with its defensive backfield, and so it’s tough to lay points here against an undefeated BYU team. 

I have it on my opening list of predictions for now, but Iowa State hasn’t won a game since September. A more conservative bettor might just bypass this game in Ames this week. 

Prediction: Iowa State -2.5

San Diego State vs. Fresno State Prediction 

Both of these teams are near the top of the Mountain West standings, so I was a little surprised when I saw the Aztecs priced as 2.5-point road favorites. That sent me down the rabbit hole, looking to explain the gap.

Unsurprisingly, the analytics love San Diego State but think Fresno is mostly a product of a soft schedule. All four of Fresno’s FBS wins currently rank outside the top 90 in EPA/play. San Diego State ranks 22nd. 

While I haven’t pulled the betting splits for this game at BetMGM yet, a quick check of market-wide numbers on Action have more than 80% of tickets on Fresno here, confirming this is an icky public dog. And despite the volume, the line has moved from San Diego State -2.5 to -3. So we can also tick the box for reverse line movement.

This is one of my favorite looks of the week and will surely fly under the radar for most handicappers. 

Prediction: San Diego State -3

Western Michigan vs. Miami (OH) Prediction

Western Michigan hasn’t been priced correctly all year, which explains why the Broncos are 6-1 ATS so far. 

The MAC is famous for its unpredictability in outcomes, but I like the plus money here with a team that could easily be the best team in the MAC. 

Prediction: Western Michigan +105

Texas vs. Mississippi State Prediction

Sorry, why is Texas laying a number like this on the road? 

Mississippi State is another team that hasn’t been priced correctly all year, and now it’s catching a full touchdown against a team that probably has the most disappointing offense in college football. 

Texas’ five wins have come against San Jose State, UTEP, Sam Houston, and Kentucky, plus a neutral-site game against archrival Oklahoma. The win over Oklahoma was in part thanks to Sooners quarterback John Mateer forcing himself back onto the field just a couple weeks after having a broken bone in his throwing hand surgically repaired. 

Texas lost at Florida, and I think this game will be every bit as difficult as the trip to Gainesville. I like the points, and I think there’s value in the moneyline price with Mississippi State. 

Prediction: Mississippi State +7; Mississippi State +210

College Football Best Bets: Week 9

• Boise State -21.5
• Oklahoma/Ole Miss Under 54.5
• Northwestern +7
• Washington -4.5
• Iowa State -2.5
• San Diego State -3
• Western Michigan +105
• Mississippi State +7