College Football Expert Picks: Week 11 ATS Predictions & Best Bets

With three weeks left in college football’s regular season, I’m surprised how many quality betting angles have yet to be gobbled up by the market.

BetMGM’s college football odds market has both spreads and totals available this week that I believe are ripe for advantage betting. Several teams have cover records clearly skewing toward specific outcomes, and bettors should make a point to target them until the market finally makes a proper adjustment.

Below are my best bets for this weekend, but don’t forget to check out my Week 11 early bets, which I publish every Monday in search of closing line value.

UCLA vs. Illinois Prediction

The market for UCLA football odds is a fun dive into the enduring conservative nature of many college sports bettors.

The Bruins are 9-0 straight up and 9-0 against the spread. Their coaching staff, along with key portions of the roster, made the College Football Playoff last year. They’ve played in only one single-possession game all year and rank No. 1 nationally in EPA/play.

Despite all that, UCLA is a ho-hum 10-point favorite against an Illinois team that, in the last 40 days, beat Maryland by three, beat Michigan State by one, and lost to Purdue at home.

Don’t overthink it.

Prediction: UCLA -10

Tennessee vs. Texas A&M Prediction

This is a funky line, to say the least. The suspicious nature of a Tennessee -2.5 market prompted me to hunt for betting angles on the Texas A&M side of this game.

Texas A&M is mired in a bad season, just one year after a playoff appearance. But I would draw a line between the second quarter of the season, where the Aggies got blown off the field by LSU and Missouri, and the last few games.

I think the general betting public isn’t picking up on this distinction. Texas A&M played a reasonably tight game in Tuscaloosa two weeks ago, then outplayed South Carolina and should have won in Columbia last week.

This directionally explains why Texas A&M is getting market respect against a third straight Top 25 opponent. With Tennessee in a letdown spot after the big win over rival Kentucky, I’m taking the points and grabbing some moneyline with the Aggies.

Prediction: Texas A&M +2.5; Texas A&M +115

Indiana vs. USC Prediction

Indiana is the worst cover team in America this college football season, yet the Hoosiers opened at 7.5 and the line is moving away from USC.

At this point, I’m just going to have to see Indiana win by margin before I stop the fade train.

Prediction: USC +9.5

UCF vs. Arizona State Prediction

UCF is one of these teams the market sold too fast this year and hasn’t figured out since.

Last week, the Knights were road underdogs to a Kansas team they’re clearly better than. After UCF jumped out to a 26-7 lead, the market was probably in danger of making a correction. Instead, UCF blew the lead and had to retake the lead in the final seconds to secure a win in Lawrence. That sequence of events helped keep the lid on for another week.

Alonza Barnett is healthy again and playing quarterback, and the run game remains very good. Arizona State had had a bit of a stink to them for several weeks now. I just need more than a -3 to chase me off the team that’s clearly better in my view.

Prediction: UCF -3

Air Force vs. San Jose State Prediction

Seasoned college football sharps will often say that the NCAA markets eventually correct on spread, but not always on total. That’s why there’s always a handful of college football teams every year that somehow end up 11-1 or 10-2 to one side of the totals market.

San Jose State appears to be one of those teams this year. The Spartans are 9-1 to the under, and these totals in the upper 40s and lower 50s aren’t aggressive enough to deter action. And in this game, specifically, we know the opponent wants to run the ball and keep the clock moving.

As I said last week, I’m looking at San Jose State unders every week until the market makes an adjustment.

Prediction: Under 47.5

College Football Week 11 Best Bets

• UCLA -10
• Texas A&M +2.5
• USC +9.5
• UCF -3
• Air Force/San Jose State Under 47.5