The Early Heisman Trophy Favorite Is Not Who You Think It Is

Spring is a great time to start work on next year’s college football futures. As spring games are played and final roster acquisitions are made, handicappers can finally start to get a complete, semi-accurate picture of what teams could look like in 2026. 

As usual, I spend more time handicapping the Heisman Trophy than probably any other person in America. You can read some of that ever-expanding analysis over at my Heisman Trophy odds post, linked right there.

But perhaps you’re not quite ready for a 100-point inspection of the Heisman market. It is merely spring after all. Perhaps you’re just looking to put eyes on one or two top names as the summer preseason approaches. 

If that’s the case, you will be surprised to learn that the current Heisman Trophy favorite is probably not who you’re imagining.

It’s not Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin, who finished fourth in last year’s voting and returns to Columbus this year.

It’s also not Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith, who finished last year as the No. 1 most popular Heisman ticket at BetMGM.

It’s not Trinidad Chambliss, who took Ole Miss to last year’s playoff semifinals and won an NCAA appeal to return for another year this fall.

It’s not even Arch Manning, who has reached co-favorite status in recent days but didn’t open the year as the favorite. 

Instead, it’s … this guy?

Yes, the early betting market likes Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr as the early name out of the gates. 

Unless you are a dyed-in-the-wool Irish fanboy, you could not have possibly thought Carr would open the year as the Heisman favorite. The redshirt sophomore is competing in a quarterback group with Dante Moore, Brendan Sorsby, Jayden Maiava, Noah Fifita, Josh Hoover, and dozens of other really talented guys – including the aforementioned Chambliss, Sayin, and Manning.

Carr finished 2025 with the No. 8 QBR (83.4) among qualifying starters. His 24 touchdowns ranked 24th nationally, while his 2,741 passing yards ranked outside the top 40. He’s not considered a dual-threat. 

So far, the early market action favors Manning, which explains his adjustment to the top of the market. But as of April 20, Carr’s early Heisman action at BetMGM accounts for 12.6% of all tickets and 13.3% of all handle. 

I’d expect those numbers to go way down as the summer approaches and more bettors start looking at college football future odds. Carr is not a household name – he wasn’t even the most popular Heisman bet on his own team last year – and may not inspire much preseason betting action beyond South Bend. 

There’s also the small matter of style. A non-mobile quarterback running a pro-style offense isn’t the kind of player that wins the Heisman in the modern era. That’s one reason why Notre Dame hasn’t had a quarterback win the Heisman Trophy in more than 60 years. 

By the time Labor Day rolls around, I don’t expect Carr to still be the Heisman favorite. But while he is, that means at least one or two players are likely undervalued. The trick for bettors is to identify the right players and land CLV while the odds remain long.