College football betting is particularly susceptible to the swings and biases of media coverage and public opinion.
Unlike the NFL, which is set up to constantly drag teams up or down toward the mean, college football is designed as an unfair game. Some programs have eight-figure budgets and attract elite recruits; other programs languish in total obscurity for decades at a time.
It’s no surprise, then, that some programs are routinely underrated or overrated over the years.
Those reasons can differ from program to program – especially when dealing with overrated teams – but the top-level takeaway is always the same. Regardless of rationale, avoid overrated teams at all costs.
Here are some of the most overrated college football teams from the last decade, as evaluated by the NCAA football point spread market. For the most part, these teams all have ROI of -15% or worse in spread markets dating back to 2018, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned PASPA.
Most Overrated College Football Teams
| Team | ATS Record |
|---|---|
| New Mexico | 25-49-1 |
| UL Monroe | 30-48 |
| Stanford | 27-45-3 |
| UMass | 28-41-2 |
| Akron | 30-43-1 |
| Michigan State | 30-43-3 |
| Wisconsin | 32-44-1 |
| Washington | 31-43-1 |
| Purdue | 33-44 |
| Maryland | 31-42 |
| Georgia Tech | 33-44-1 |
| Southern Miss | 33-44 |
| UCF | 34-44 |
| Florida Atlantic | 32-42-3 |
| NC State | 34-4 |
| Kent State | 31-41-1 |
| Middle Tennessee | 34-43 |
| Bowling Green | 32-40-1 |
| Western Michigan | 33-41 |
College football betting doesn’t stop when the games end in January. You can bet on futures throughout the offseason!
As teams are holding spring practice, adding players from the transfer portal, and releasing depth charts, you can view updated online sports betting odds for a variety of markets, including national championship odds, win totals, and conference champion odds.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
