College Football Win Totals: Odds & Futures Bets for 2023

Late spring might not seem like an important time in the college football calendar, but it’s one of my absolute favorite parts of the year.

The BetMGM online sportsbook recently released a crucial piece of the college football betting odds market: College Football Win Totals. 

Now, you can scour the sportsbook, examining every single projection for every single Power 5 team. I’m told G5 numbers are coming soon, too.

College Football Win Totals at BetMGM

College football win totals are a long-time love of mine. Unlike NFL win totals, where everyone has relatively equal access to capital and resources, college football is a total chaos machine. 

Some fan bases know their players have a lazy river in their secondary weightlifting annex; others look up what their college football coach makes and are shocked by the relative lack of zeroes. 

But navigating that inequality is what makes betting win totals so much fun. Schedules are uneven, and recruiting is a huge variable to all but the most obsessed. The transfer portal adds an additional dimension of movement and mystery to the proceedings. 

Still, bettors who home in on a handful of teams, or specialize in one conference, can find a clear advantage over the sportsbook.

College Football Win Total Odds: Big Brands & Championship Contenders

Georgia Football Win Total

The Georgia Bulldogs’ win total for the 2023 college football season is 11.5.

Georgia will draw a lot of eyeballs this summer as the only team priced at 11.5. Since postseason games are not factored into the win total market, Georgia must go a perfect 12-0 to go over. 

This is the kind of apex college football treatment that Nick Saban’s Alabama squad has routinely received. And even Alabama loses games in the regular season.

Georgia plays in a slightly weaker SEC division, but the Bulldogs still have to earn a perfect record. Tennessee is a real player under Josh Heupel; Florida and Kentucky will be tough outs. Historically, South Carolina has been one of Georgia’s scrappiest opponents.

The schedule is very manageable, with only four true road games all year. Two should be walkovers against Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech.

Nonetheless, I’d bank on something going wrong somewhere. Quarterback Stetson Bennett is now in a Rams uniform, and OC Todd Monken – architect of the national championship offenses of 2021 and 2022 – is now coaching Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens offense. 

Even with a friendly schedule, a loss is more likely than not. In college football history, 30-game win streaks just aren’t all that common.

College Football Win Totals: Skepticism for National Championship Contenders

Alabama, Ohio State, and Michigan are set at 10.5 wins in 2023. Both Big Ten schools made the playoff last year; the Crimson Tide lost two conference games for the first time since 2019. 

Both Ohio State and Alabama will need to rely on new quarterbacks after CJ Stroud and Bryce Young were selected with the top two picks in April’s NFL Draft. Both teams will also play road games against their biggest rival to cap the regular season.

Ohio State has lost two straight games to Michigan; Alabama is 2-3 straight up in its last five games at Auburn. 

Both schools are high in the college football national championship odds market, but some skepticism is still appropriate on high win totals.

College Football Win Totals: Florida State Returns to Power in the ACC

The vig on Florida State’s over is pretty hard to swallow, but I am high on the Seminoles this year. 

Jordan Travis is a highly experienced quarterback at this point, and he’s primed for a huge finale. He’s become one of the top names in the Heisman favorites conversation. 

On the whole, Florida State has been methodically trending upward ever since Mike Norvell got there. 

So I’m bullish on FSU futures in general, but the -165 price might make me want to look for another opportunity elsewhere in the college football futures market.

College Football Win Totals: Should Texas and Oklahoma Be This High?

Texas and Oklahoma are fascinating handicaps. Both teams are the most powerful brands currently playing in the Big 12, but neither football team has played in the Big 12 title game in multiple seasons. Oklahoma even finished 2022 with a losing record. 

So skepticism toward a sudden return to 10-win seasons feels totally fair. Texas even has Alabama scheduled in the non-conference. 

Will an infusion of AAC teams into the schedule suddenly pump up the win numbers? Longhorn fans might think so, but I doubt it. 

College Football Win Totals: A Surprising Number in the Pac-12

I must confess that I did not expect to see Washington hobnobbing this high in the table with the A-tier programs, but it does make sense. 

Kalen DeBoer came in for the 2022 season and immediately made the Huskies competitive. They have another season with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, who threw for more yards than any other P5 quarterback last season. 

The schedule is mildly challenging and includes non-conference games against Boise State and Michigan State, but Washington should have a great shot to win both of those games. 

Why not the Huskies for 10 wins at +120?

College Football Win Total Odds: Remaining P5 Schools

College Football Sleepers: Hidden Gems in the College Football Win Totals Market

It’ll take weeks to examine all these numbers thoroughly, and we’ve still got G5 win totals still to come. So I couldn’t possibly weigh in on everything here.

Here are a few things I can say…

College Football Win Totals: Beware the Brand Names

Watch out for numbers that are juiced simply because of the name on the front of the jersey. 

For instance: Texas A&M finished last in the SEC West last year, but the Aggies’ win total for this year is 7.5 with big juice to the over. 

It also has the fifth-best odds to win the SEC championship at +1600, behind only the mostly-proven commodities at Georgia, Alabama, LSU, and Tennessee. 

This number relies on bettors telling themselves, “Well, surely they’ll figure it out down there!” But is there any evidence that they actually will? And Jimbo Fisher is squarely on the college football hot seat.

College Football Win Totals: An Insider’s Look at the West Virginia Mountaineers

As a West Virginia guy, I can tell you that the era of pretending NIL doesn’t exist is dead and buried in Morgantown. 

That’s no guarantee that Neal Brown will suddenly have a great team this year, but I think a full embrace of modern college football will only help the Mountaineers be more competitive. 

WVU’s win total of 4.5 is a very soft number, as it’s only gone 4-8 or worse once (2013) in the last 20 years. But there are two key problems: the vig and the schedule. 

Nobody wants to pay juice for a West Virginia over, and the Eers have road games this year against Penn State, TCU, Houston, UCF, Oklahoma, and Baylor. They also have a second non-conference game against Pitt in the renewed Backyard Brawl. 

This is among the most difficult schedules in FBS college football. Strictly on the field, five wins might make sense; in terms of handicapping, though, Under 4.5 at +120 is probably the right bet. 

College Football Win Totals: The Deion Sanders Experience

I know everyone loves Deion Sanders, but I just don’t see the path to four wins for this Colorado team. 

The schedule is difficult, featuring both TCU and Nebraska in the non-conference. In conference, the Buffs’ draw includes both LA schools, both Oregon schools, Utah, and Washington State. That feels like 0-6 to me. 

Even if they split with the meh Arizona schools and beat Stanford and Colorado State, that’s still 3-9. 

College Football Win Totals: Market Bias Against the Big Ten West

Last year, four Big Ten West teams finished the regular season with seven wins or more: Purdue, Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota. 

This year, only one team in the division – Wisconsin, which finished the regular season 6-6 (4-5) in 2022 – has a win total north of 6.5. That seems like a pretty big market hole to me.