Week 4 was a very strong week of college football betting for me, as I successfully identified Ole Miss as a fade target and several other bad point spreads in random G6 games. The Week 4 college football best bets column went 4-1 and missed 5-0 by one point!
The calendar is flying by this fall, but it’s already time to consider Week 5 college football spreads. Here’s your weekly reminder that this article is intended to provide a shot of early analysis on games where the numbers could move quickly this week.
The goal is to find a little closing line value.
South Carolina vs. Kentucky Prediction
Kentucky pops into the AP Top 25 this week after blowing out South Alabama 45-21. The real damage came a week ago in Week 3, when the Wildcats won on the road at Texas A&M.
Is Kentucky legitimately a poll-worthy team? I have my doubts. This seems like a too-early coronation for Will Stein’s Lexington crew, which I think will be a tough out but not necessarily a top-half SEC team.
The market agrees with me, which is why South Carolina opened at -3. Some quick fires on Kentucky moved this number a hair, but longtime readers know I target unranked favorites hosting ranked underdogs.
My recommendation is to grab this before it jumps back to South Carolina -3.
Prediction: South Carolina -2.5
Florida vs. Missouri Prediction
Ole Miss delivered one of the most memorable results of the year in Week 3, and I promptly recommended a fat bet against the Rebels with Florida in Week 4. The Gators delivered, topping 50 points on Saturday.
Now, Florida has the chance to go on the road and play a dangerous conference opponent right after a flashy win. And while I don’t think the emotions in Gainesville are the same as what Ole Miss felt after beating Lane Kiffin’s LSU team, this is nonetheless a great opportunity to fade a Florida team on a natural comedown spot.
My expectation is that Florida probably wins – it is the better team here – but Missouri plays tight and covers.
This line has already moved from Florida -5, which means we’re moving closer to key football numbers. If you like this game, the time to bet it is now, before it hits Missouri +4 or shorter.
Prediction: Missouri +4.5
Early College Football Bets for Week 5
- South Carolina -2.5
- Missouri +4.5
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