College Football Expert Picks: Week 4 ATS Predictions & Best Bets

Now that most conferences have moved to a nine-game conference schedule, Week 4 is the moment when conference games flood the college football schedule.

Perhaps not coincidentally, most of the college football betting opportunities I like the most this week come from the handful of non-conference games that are still being played.

Before reading today’s best bets column, make sure you got eyes on my early Week 4 bets from earlier in the week. There may still be some value left on those numbers.

Otherwise, let’s proceed with the Week 4 predictions!

Texas Tech vs. Sam Houston Prediction

I’m going to keep fading Texas Tech until the market finally corrects. That’s the top-line takeaway here – Texas Tech remains woefully overvalued because of offseason priors in the market.

I just don’t see a top-20 team or a Big 12 super-favorite when I watch the Red Raiders play. They rank in the bottom half of FBS for EPA/rush, EPA/rush allowed, and EPA/pass allowed. The offense is bad on first down and constantly plays behind the chains. Will Hammond looks in over his head for large stretches of games. Everything seems way harder than it should be, and then they find a way to win in the fourth quarter.

I do think the offense seemed to figure some things out in the second half of the Houston game, so I could see Texas Tech growing in the right direction as Big 12 play continues in October. But in general, I don’t see how anyone could confidently lay five touchdowns with a team like I just described. And Sam Houston has been a pretty scrappy dog!

Prediction: Sam Houston +34.5

Georgia State vs. Ball State Prediction

Georgia State is typically at the bottom of the Sun Belt East, so it’ll probably be several more weeks before average fans figure out that the Panthers are a decent team this year. 

Quarterback Cameran Brown has been quite good for Georgia State, and the vastly improved offense is why the team is now winning games against respectable opponents. The Panthers still have a problem at the line of scrimmage, ranking 124th in EPA/rush allowed, but the offense is controlling the game and scoring enough points that this hasn’t been much of a problem yet.

Some numbers: Georgia State ranks 66th in yards per play, 47th in EPA/pass, and 33rd in offensive success rate on pass plays. For a team that’s regularly in the bottom 25 of FBS, that’s pretty good!

The only trouble here worth considering is the number. Georgia State won outright as a 9.5-point dog against cross-town rival Kennesaw State. The Panthers rang up nearly 60 points of offense against North Carolina A&T in Week 1, and they were a live dog in last week’s competitive game with UCF.

But now Georgia State flips to a position where they need to cover a number as a favorite. Sometimes, teams that aren’t used to being in that situation don’t play up to market projections when their underdog status goes away.

Still, I’m pretty comfortable laying 10.5 in this situation because Ball State is bad. I expect Brown to have a big game here, which should power a favorite cover.

Prediction: Georgia State -10.5

Florida vs. Ole Miss Prediction

This is arguably my favorite side of the week and one of my favorite bets of the entire month of September. 

After many Ole Miss players summoned the game of their life last week, the Rebels must now take their show on the road to Gainesville. That’s a dangerous deal this year, since the Gators look to have their best team in a few years under new head coach Jon Sumrall.

The market is really telling you everything you need to know here. With Florida priced as a 3.5-point favorite earlier in the week and a 3-point favorite as of this writing, the market is directionally positioned against Ole Miss, even if there’s a modest buyback with Ole Miss as the week carries on. 

After a massive win like Ole Miss had last week, the book usually batons down the hatches and expects a massive influx of interest in Ole Miss. The Rebels moved into the top five in the AP Poll, and quarterback Trinidad Chambliss became the Heisman Trophy co-favorite.

 Contrast all those positive signs with the clear expectation that Florida should win this game. It’s a very clear market signal that you should like the Gators in this game. 

Prediction: Florida -3

Miami (OH) vs. UConn Prediction

There are two distinct reasons why I’m interested in this game.

The first centers around UConn. Jason Candle came over to East Hartford from Toledo after last season, and the Huskies certainly look competent if nothing else. The defense looks like a decent G6 unit.

I think they’re a live dog in most games against MAC opponents, which is why I was initially interested in this +3.5 line.

Candle, of course, comes from the MAC, where he has regularly coached against Chuck Martin and the RedHawks. This is a familiar opponent whom Candle has had plenty of success against – from 2023-25, Toledo went 3-0 against Miami straight up with win margins of 4, 10, and 21. Two of the three were road games for Toledo.

On the Miami side of this game, the RedHawks blew a tough early lead against rival Cincinnati last week, losing 35-31 after leading 28-7 at halftime. It’s hard not to wonder if this is a flat spot in the aftermath of that decision – especially against a random, nonconference opponent like UConn. 

Prediction: UConn +3.5

Toledo vs. San Diego State Prediction

Speaking of Jason Candle’s old team, I’m interested in the Rockets this week, too. Mike Jacobs replaced Candle after working up the coaching ranks at Notre Dame college, Lenoir-Rhyne, and FCS Mercer. 

So far, I have liked what Toledo has shown on the field, including the competitive game the Rockets played against Michigan State in Week 1. Entering Week 4, Toledo ranks as a top-50 team in EPA/rush and offensive success rate and a top-25 team in yards per play and EPA/pass. 

That’s a lot more than anyone can say for San Diego State, which has looked utterly dreadful on offense this month. The Aztecs have yet to score points in the first half against an FBS team.

In this spot, they’ll travel 2,000 miles to play a 9am body clock game in Eastern time. Can a terrible offensive team keep up enough to cover this short number? My suspicion is no.

Prediction: Toledo -3

College Football Week 4 Best Bets

• Sam Houston +34.5
• Georgia State -10.5
• Florida -3
• UConn +3.5
• Toledo -3