Missouri State vs Florida International Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 10

• The FIU Panthers are a -4 point favorite vs. the Missouri State Bears
• Missouri State vs. Florida International Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN+

Missouri State (3-5) visit South Dade Kia Field at Pitbull Stadium to take on Florida International (3-5) on Nov. 7 in Miami, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 pm.

The FIU Panthers are betting favorites in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -4 (-130).

The Missouri State vs. Florida International Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

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Missouri State vs. Florida International Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Missouri State vs Florida International Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Florida International will win this game with 58.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Missouri State Bears and the FIU Panthers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Missouri State vs Florida International Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida International will cover the spread with 57.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Missouri State Best Bets Today

• Missouri State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 13 games (+3.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• Missouri State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.65 Units / 33% ROI)
• Missouri State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.05 Units / 7% ROI)
• Missouri State has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
• Missouri State has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.50 Units / 6% ROI)

Florida International Best Bets Today

• Florida International has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• Florida International has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• Florida International has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• Florida International have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.82 Units / 28% ROI)
• Florida International has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.65 Units / 24% ROI)

Missouri State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Missouri State Bears is 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.4 Units / -4.56% ROI).

• Missouri State is 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.06 Units / -0.41% ROI
• Missouri State is 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.51 Units / -28.49% ROI
• Missouri State is 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / 19.1% ROI

Florida International Against the Spread (ATS) Record

FIU Panthers is 3-4 against the spread this college football season (-1.36 Units / -15.44% ROI).

• Florida International is 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -8.34% ROI
• Florida International is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.35 Units / -4.05% ROI
• Florida International is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -5.59% ROI

Missouri State: Keys to the Game vs. Florida International

Missouri State was winless (0-1) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .442

Missouri State was winless (0-1) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .418

Missouri State was winless (0-1) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .481

Missouri State was winless (0-1) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Florida International: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri State

Florida International was winless (0-6) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .314

Florida International was 3-8 (.273) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-39th-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Florida International was winless (0-6) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .382

Florida International was 3-7 (.300) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-39th-worst in FBS; Average: .418

Matchup Notes for Missouri State vs. Florida International

Florida International’s RBs averaged just 4.8 yards after the catch last season — T-4th-worst among FBS RBs. Missouri State’s defense allowed 9.0 RAC to RBs last season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida International’s RBs had 2 rushing touchdowns per game last season — T-20th-best among FBS RBs. Missouri State’s defense has allowed 2.0 rushing touchdowns per game last season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida International’s RBs has averaged just 6.1 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among FBS RBs. Missouri State’s defense has allowed 9.1 RAC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Missouri State’s QBs threw for 3,607 passing yards in 13 games (277.5 YPG) last season — 17th-best among FBS teams. Florida International’s defense allowed 249.9 passing yards per game last season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Missouri State’s RBs averaged 5.4 targets per game last season — T-33rd-highest among FBS RBs. Florida International’s defense allowed 4.1 receptions per game to RBs last season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Missouri State’s WRs had 208.5 receiving yards per game last season — 16th-best among FBS WRs. Florida International’s defense allowed 183.5 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — 20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Missouri State Offensive Stats & Trends

Missouri State Skill Players averaged just -2.0 yards per reception (-4 yards/2 catches) on 3rd and long last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

Missouri State RBs averaged just 1.6 Yards per Carry (8 yards/5 carries) in the 1st half last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Missouri State RBs averaged 1.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (10 yards / 6 touches) in the 1st half last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Missouri State RBs averaged -1.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (-3 yards / 3 touches) on 3rd down last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6

Missouri State Skill Players averaged 26.7 yards per reception (160 yards/6 catches) on 1st down last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.4

Florida International Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida International RBs have rushed for 2 TDs on 207 carries (103.5 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.5

Florida International RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 41 carries (inf Carries Per TD) in close and late situations this season– T-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 23.8

Florida International’s RBs averaged just 4.8 yards after the catch last season — T-4th-worst among FBS RBs. Missouri State’s defense allowed 9.0 RAC to RBs last season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida International QBs fumbled 7 times in the 4th quarter in the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Florida International RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 68 carries (inf Carries Per TD) in close and late situations since the 2024 season– T-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 23.7

Missouri State Defensive Stats & Trends

Missouri State tackled opponents for a loss on 2 of 6 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

Missouri State allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (4 completions/4 attempts) on 3rd and long last season– worst in FBS; Average: 55%

Missouri State allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (4 completions/4 attempts) on 3rd and long last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%

Missouri State allowed 9.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (48 yards / 5 touches) on 3rd and short last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.0

Missouri State allowed opponents to catch 4 of 4 passes (100% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 56%

Florida International Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida International did not record a sack (30 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.6

Florida International allowed 6 rushing TDs last week– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Florida International allowed 6 rushing TDs last week– most in FBS

Florida International allowed 7 TDs in the Red Zone last week– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Florida International allowed 6 rushing TDs in the Red Zone last week– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

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