College Football Expert Picks: Week 1 ATS Predictions & Best Bets

Welcome to another year of college football best bets. No one is more happy to be writing about another year of college football picks than yours truly.

Whether you’re a longtime fan dating back to the days of Lion’s Edge or even Edge Sorting, I hope this column is successful in milling out a few winners for you. 

This column will be posted every week this fall, typically early Thursday afternoon. I will not repeat picks from my early bets article, so make sure you’re looking out for both. If you missed my Week 1 early picks article from this week and only look at this one, you’re missing out on my favorite bet of the week. 

Now, let the fun begin!

Washington vs. Washington State Prediction

Technically speaking, the Apple Cup is a rivalry game, and it’s dangerous to lay three touchdowns and change in a rivalry game.

Now that we got the boilerplate warning out of the way, I think you can comfortably lay it in this spot. In fact, the “rivalry” tag is probably suppressing this point spread to some extent. 

It’s tough to argue that a dark horse playoff contender like Washington – complete with an excellent dual-threat quarterback and a pretty nice defense – isn’t several touchdowns better than this floundering Wazzou roster. 

Prediction: Washington -23.5

South Florida vs. FIU Prediction

After the offseason the Bulls had, I’m just not sure USF should be laying double digits against an in-state FBS team. This point spread feels like a branding issue, and USF’s secondary looks like it will struggle to protect a cover against a big number.

If you compare the top athletes at USF to the top athletes at FIU, I’m guessing South Florida has an edge. But FIU could arguably have the better defense, and Willie Simmons brings a pretty major head coaching experience advantage into the start of a new season. 

I expect a competitive game that keeps FIU inside of this potentially bloated number. 

Prediction: FIU +13.5

Penn State vs. Marshall Prediction

Marshall is a team I’m pretty high on this year, as I’ve got futures bets on the Thundering Herd to win its division and its conference. I took an extra look at their early September point spreads.

Sure, there’s a chance that Penn State dominates Marshall, and new PSU head coach Matt Campbell opens his tenure in Happy Valley with a big win and cover. But Campbell’s skill at Iowa State was that he consistently won as a dog. He was actually a pretty lousy bet as a favorite.

When I saw my Sun Belt darling of the year catching 24 points and the hook against a head coach that struggles to cover as a favorite, how could I not put it on my short list for Week 1? I’ll say Marshall plays inspired defense under second-year coach Tony Gibson and makes this a little tighter than PSU fans care for. 

Prediction: Marshall +24.5

Western Kentucky vs. Nevada Prediction

I was a little disappointed that this point spread wasn’t bigger. When I dove into Jeff Choate’s roster for Year 2 in Reno, I liked what I saw. I think the Wolf Pack will be able to run the ball with a big, effective offensive line, starting in Week 1 against visiting Western Kentucky.

WKU is a made program in the G6 ranks, so I expected Nevada to be a real home dog after last year’s three-win season. But instead, the market is on to this game, and WKU is only laying 2.5 points in a mega-road game. 

As a result, this -2.5 number looks like one of the biggest trap lines of the week. I like Nevada to win the game outright. 

Prediction: Nevada +2.5; Nevada ML

College Football Week 1 Best Bets

• Washington -23.5
• FIU +13.5
• Marshall +24.5
• Nevada +2.5