2 Early College Football Picks for Week 1

Week 1 of the 2026 college football season is finally upon us, and game buzz is permeating the late summer air.

For the first time in nine months, there are dozens of college football lines for enterprising bettors to consider.

As usual, I’ll spend most of my week working through game previews and selecting a handful of betting opportunities that I like. If you’re new here, I typically publish my best bets late in the week.

But this year, I’m trying something new. In addition to my best bets column, I’ll be sharing a few early-week bets that jumped off the page.

These will often be games where staking early could yield closing line value. But, as is the case with the first game below, it could also just be something I discover while doing early research and can’t stand to sit on for another few days.

Oklahoma vs. UTEP Prediction

UTEP has not had much fun against Oklahoma – or really the SEC in general. The Miners are 0-5 against Oklahoma (1-4 ATS) and 0-12 against the SEC since 1968. In its last 10 games against the SEC, UTEP is 2-8 against the number.

Let’s also add in here that UTEP is 0-4 ATS in its last four season openers.

Even at a steep price, the trends are screaming to get behind Oklahoma football odds, which could explain why the point spread edged from 41.5 to 42 Monday morning.

This game reminds me a lot of Florida State’s Week 0 game against New Mexico State. Both games featured huge spreads and a major matchup on the horizon. For Oklahoma, it’s next week’s game against Michigan, which will have major playoff implications.

My suspicion, which I shared in last week’s Week 0 best bets column, was that FSU would play conservatively and run clock as much as possible against an inferior opponent to maximize roster health at the end of the game. FSU won 34-17, the dog covered, and the game stayed under.

I have similar thoughts about this game, which is why I lean toward UTEP plus the points. Beyond the point spread, though, my preferred play – as was the case with Florida State – is the under. Oklahoma has little reason to run loads of offense in what is functionally a Week 1 scrimmage with the Wolverines on deck in Week 2. And for good measure, UTEP openers are 6-0 to the under over the last six seasons.

Prediction: Oklahoma/UTEP Under 50.5

USC vs. Fresno State Prediction

This is old hat for regular blog readers, but I’m in love with Fresno State this year. I’ve already written about my many Fresno State bets several times, including in my favorite futures bets of the summer.

Bettors appear to have finally caught on, at least for Week 1. Fresno has moved from +23.5 to +22 since USC failed to cover a big number against San Jose State in Week 0, so we could see this get to Fresno +21 (or even shorter) as the week goes on.

If you read my very early Week 1 college football bets article from earlier in the summer, then you might already have Fresno +23.5 in your pocket. If you’re just checking in for the first time, though, this is one you’ll want to look at.

Prediction: Fresno State +22

Early College Football Bets To Consider for Week 1

• Oklahoma/UTEP Under 50.5
• Fresno State +22