- The Kentucky Wildcats are a -20 point favorite vs. the South Alabama Jaguars
- South Alabama vs. Kentucky Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
- TV Channel: SECN
South Alabama (2-1) visit Kroger Field to take on Kentucky (2-1) on Sep. 26 in Lexington, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:45 pm.
The Kentucky Wildcats are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -20 (-110).
The South Alabama vs. Kentucky Over/Under is 54.5 total points.
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South Alabama vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| South Alabama | +20 -108 | 54.5 -108 | +900 |
| Kentucky | -20 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1400 |
South Alabama vs Kentucky Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Kentucky will win this game with 89.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the South Alabama Jaguars and the Kentucky Wildcats, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
South Alabama vs Kentucky Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kentucky will cover the spread with 69.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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South Alabama Best Bets Today
- South Alabama have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- South Alabama has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+4.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- South Alabama has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- South Alabama has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- South Alabama has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 16% ROI)
Kentucky Best Bets Today
- Kentucky has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.82 Units / 56% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+3.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kentucky have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
South Alabama Against the Spread (ATS) Record
South Alabama Jaguars is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- South Alabama is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 11.05% ROI
- South Alabama is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- South Alabama is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Kentucky Wildcats is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 26.47% ROI).
- Kentucky is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.8 Units / 29% ROI
- Kentucky is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Kentucky is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
South Alabama: Keys to the Game vs. Kentucky
South Alabama was 2-5 (.286) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .418
South Alabama is 2-5 (.286) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season– T-25th-worst in FBS; Average: .531
South Alabama is 3-8 (.273) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-26th-worst in FBS; Average: .474
South Alabama is 2-7 (.222) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-14th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .413
Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. South Alabama
Kentucky was 1-8 (.111) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481
Kentucky is 1-7 (.125) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .493
Kentucky was 1-7 (.125) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: .422
Kentucky was 1-2 (.333) when in a one score game last season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Matchup Notes for South Alabama vs. Kentucky
Kentucky’s WRs has averaged just 12.3 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among SEC WRs. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 12.2 RAC since the 2024 season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Kentucky’s WRs has 162 receptions in 15 games (just 10.8 per game) since the 2024 season — worst among SEC WRs. South Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.7 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-28th-best among FBS defenses.
Kentucky’s RBs has rushed for 1,921 yards on 414 carries (just 4.6 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-30th-worst among FBS RBs. South Alabama’s defense have allowed 4.8 YPC since the 2024 season — T-19th-worst among FBS defenses.
South Alabama’s QBs threw for 2,174 passing yards in 12 games (just 181.2 YPG) last season — 24th-worst among FBS teams. Kentucky’s defense allowed 239.9 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.
South Alabama’s offense threw for 2,174 passing yards in 12 games (just 181.2 YPG) last season — 24th-worst among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 239.9 passing yards per game last season — 32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
South Alabama’s offense threw for 2,174 passing yards in 12 games (just 181.2 YPG) last season — 24th-worst among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 239.9 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.
South Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends
South Alabama’s QBs threw for 2,174 passing yards in 12 games (just 181.2 YPG) last season — 24th-worst among FBS teams. Kentucky’s defense allowed 239.9 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.
South Alabama’s offense threw for 2,174 passing yards in 12 games (just 181.2 YPG) last season — 24th-worst among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 239.9 passing yards per game last season — 32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
South Alabama’s offense threw for 2,174 passing yards in 12 games (just 181.2 YPG) last season — 24th-worst among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 239.9 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.
South Alabama’s RBs averaged just 5.5 yards after the catch last season — T-9th-worst among FBS RBs. Kentucky’s defense allowed 10.0 RAC to RBs last season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.
South Alabama’s RBs averaged just 5.5 yards after the catch last season — T-9th-worst among FBS RBs. Kentucky’s defense allowed 12.7 RAC last season — 2nd-worst among SEC defenses.
Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends
Kentucky WRs caught just 114 of 220 passes(52% Reception Pct) last season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 61%
Kentucky TEs averaged 22.8 yards per reception (364 yards/16 catches) on 1st down in the 2023 season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 13.2
Kentucky WRs have averaged just 9.7 yards per reception (194 yards/20 catches) on 3rd and long this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 14.6
Kentucky TEs averaged just 2.1 receptions per game (25/12) last season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 3.8
Kentucky TEs averaged 19.9 yards per reception (576 yards/29 catches) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.6
South Alabama Defensive Stats & Trends
South Alabama did not record a sack (52 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0
South Alabama opponents averaged 8.7 Passing Attempts per TD (52 Pass Attempts/6 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8
South Alabama did not record a sack (52 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.6
South Alabama opponents averaged 8.7 Passing Attempts per TD (52 Pass Attempts/6 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 3.9
South Alabama has allowed 4.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (410 yards / 84 touches) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.7
Kentucky Defensive Stats & Trends
Kentucky tackled opponents for a loss on 20 of 82 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.
Kentucky has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 2 of 48 attempts (4%) on 3rd and long this season– best in the SEC; Average: 8%
Kentucky’s opponents attempted just 23.2 passes per game last season– lowest in the SEC; Average: 29.8
Kentucky has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 37 rushing attempts (5% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 3rd-worst in the SEC; Average: 12%.
Kentucky’s opponents attempted just 23.2 passes per game last season– lowest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 31.0
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