It took six games for the 49ers to take over the top spot on the Super Bowl odds board from the Rams.
Despite a Week 1 win in Melbourne over their NFC West rivals, San Francisco remained outside the top-three spots to win a championship.
Not even a win over Seattle brought them into the first three choices.
But a win over Washington took San Francisco to 6-0. Additionally, the Rams and Seahawks dropped games to give Kyle Shanahan’s team the inside track to the number one seed.
Currently, San Francisco is -135 to earn a first-round bye, +225 to win the NFC, and +550 to win the Super Bowl.
Are the ratings deserved? Let’s dive into the analysis based on current NFL odds.
49ers Super Bowl Chances & Odds Breakdown
The 49ers recorded some of the league’s best metrics en route to a 6-0 start.
Shanahan’s offense paces the NFL in offensive DVOA. The rating is driven by a 64% pass offense DVOA rating, good for a 12.5% lead over second place.
In fact, the gap between San Francisco and second-place Buffalo is nearly as big as the gap between Buffalo (51.5%) and sixth-place Kansas City (38.8%).
Defensively, this team has impressed me the most.
The transition from Robert Saleh to Raheem Morris brought a decent improvement. San Francisco ranks third in defensive DVOA, including sixth against the pass.
Here’s where the problem lies: San Francisco achieved those ratings against some bad units.
Defensively, San Francisco has played the fifth-easiest set of offenses. It hasn’t stopped the team from regressing against the Cardinals and Commanders.
San Francisco averaged an 8.8% defensive DVOA rating against those teams. Even Denver reached a -8.7% rating. For a 49ers defense owning a -14.2% average, it ranks below average.
| Opponent | Defense DVOA | Pass Defense | Rush Defense |
|---|---|---|---|
| at Rams | -32.7% | -46.3% | -21.0% |
| Dolphins | -22.3% | -15.7% | -28.6% |
| Cardinals | 9.7% | 32.9% | -12.5% |
| Broncos | -8.7% | 7.1% | -29.1% |
| at Seahawks | -39.0% | -46.0% | -30.8% |
| Commanders | 7.8% | 24.2% | -17.2% |
Depending on how much stock you place in San Francisco’s defensive performance against the Rams in Melbourne, it’s a team that has played well against bad units.
Now let’s address the offensive metrics.
I will stand up and applaud Brock Purdy for how he operated despite continued injury concerns. The fact remains most of their outstanding rating stems from two games against bad units.
Shanahan’s offense averaged a 69.7% DVOA rating against the Dolphins and Cardinals. In the other contests: 17.2%.
Through the air, the offense averaged a 134.8% rating vs. Miami and Arizona. In the four other games – Seattle, Denver, Washington and LA – the unit averaged a 28.6% rating.
Still outstanding? Yes. But in a world where the defense starts to regress against better competition, it could place enhanced pressure on the Niners offense to reach a loftier ceiling.
| Opponent | Offense DVOA | Pass Offense | Rush Offense |
|---|---|---|---|
| at Rams | 28.6% | 38.9% | 15.1% |
| Dolphins | 65.4% | 138.5% | -8.7% |
| Cardinals | 74.0% | 131.0% | 18.5% |
| Broncos | 10.4% | 49.2% | -14.5% |
| at Seahawks | 3.6% | -3.6% | 11.6% |
| Commanders | 26.2% | 30.0% | 32.0% |
Applying 49ers Data to Odds Evaluation
Despite all of what I just outlined, I struggle to find a way to step in front of the 49ers.
The Rams are losing games they normally win. The Seahawks offense remains completely broken. Defensive issues are countless amongst other NFC contenders.
It would genuinely stun me if the 49ers do not clinch the top seed in the NFC. The team does not face the Lions, a team that could give this defense some problems.
In Week 11, San Francisco plays the Minnesota Vikings at home. Brian Flores possesses a strong defense, but it has shown weakness against the run.
San Francisco winning that game likely ends the hopes of any other team taking the top seed. That, of course, would coincide with the Lions’ defensive woes continuing as it gets healthier.
Concerns about the Niners’ schedule leave me bearish on predicting a Super Bowl win. If you’re someone interested in taking a position in the Super Bowl market, I would focus on the AFC.
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