Vanderbilt vs. Missouri: Prediction, Odds, Betting Preview

For the second time in four weeks, the College GameDay schedule is featuring a Vanderbilt game.

That’s because ESPN is headed to Nashville this week, as the No. 10 Commodores host No. 15 Missouri in a game with unexpectedly significant SEC implications. The winner will remain in the hunt for a championship game berth; the loser will need a lot of help to get back in the mix.

I’ve got your betting preview below. 

Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Odds

• Point Spread: Vanderbilt -2.5
• Moneyline: Vanderbilt -150  |  Missouri +125
• Over/Under: 52.5

Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Preview

For this game between Missouri and Vanderbilt, some bettors may focus on the historical trends. Missouri has won five straight games and eight of its last nine against Vanderbilt.

This would be, in a word, stupid. Vanderbilt is much better this year than it has been in previous years, so its shared history in the old SEC East division hardly seems relevant here.

Ahmad Hardy has been a revelation as the center of Missouri’s excellent run game, but it’s actually Vanderbilt that sports the superior advantage on the ground in this game. Vanderbilt’s offense ranks fourth nationally with +0.22 EPA/rush, and Missouri’s defense is on the mediocre side, rating just outside the top 60 in EPA/rush allowed.

At least on paper, Missouri’s offensive advantage is actually through the air, attacking a Vanderbilt pass defense that ranks in the FBS bottom 25 in EPA/pass allowed.

The stat I’ve keyed in on is Missouri’s success on third and fourth down. The Tigers are converting those late downs at around 55% – one of the best marks in the country. 

All this paints a picture of a Missouri team that can pass successfully on early downs, then convert at a high clip on late downs with Hardy. Missouri is going to score touchdowns, and Vanderbilt will need to keep up. 

Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Prediction

I’m predicting over 52.5 for Saturday’s game between Vanderbilt and Missouri. 

Missouri is 5-1 to the over this year, partially because it finishes drives in the end zone. I think that trend will continue this week, leading to another over.

Because the Tigers start fast, I also like 1H Over 24.5. 

I lean toward Missouri +125 in the moneyline market but prefer predictions in the totals market. I also think this is a great spot to consider Beau Pribula’s passing props.

Prediction: Over 52.5, 1H Over 24.5; Lean Missouri +125