Virginia Tech vs. Pitt: Odds & Prediction for Friday Night ACC Clash

Blacksburg will host something of a historic ACC game on Friday night. The meeting between Pittsburgh (4-0, 1-0) and Virginia Tech (4-0, 1-0) will be the first game in modern history between two unranked 4-0 opponents.

There will be a lot of eyes on Friday’s primetime game, and the winner likely will be ranked next week. 

BetMGM has NCAA football odds available for all the Week 5 college football action.

Virginia Tech vs. Pitt Odds

• Point Spread: Virginia Tech -3
• Moneyline: Virginia Tech -160  |  Pittsburgh +135
• Over/Under: 54.5

Virginia Tech vs. Pitt: Prediction and Preview

The unranked 4-0 blurb may seem like nothing more than a quirk for Sports Information Directors to share ahead of the game, but it does offer some meaningful insight into evaluating this game.

One reaction to this information might be: “Wow, AP Poll voters are more committed to ranking the usual suspects than ever before.” You know the drill – SEC teams, Big Ten teams, and other powerful college football brands like Miami, Louisville, and Boise State. Being undefeated at the end of September isn’t enough if you’re Virginia Tech or Pitt.

There’s probably some truth to that. But the other thing to consider is that neither of these teams have really played anyone yet, which explains why there is still some doubt about how good they are.

Start with the Hokies, who earned single-digit wins at Maryland and Boston College over the last two weeks. These are two of the worst P4 programs going right now, so it’s fair to wonder what to make of them. And after Old Dominion’s no-show at home against rival JMU last week, Tech’s Week 2 blowout may not mean much, either. We truly don’t know anything about how good the Hokies are.

I am at least a little bit more confident in Pitt, since I think Miami (OH) is good (by MAC standards), and UCF is impressing me with a backup quarterback playing right now. But overall, the lack of a ranking for either team is just as much a referendum on the lingering mystery of each team as it is poll voter conformity. 

Fortunately, there’s no need to play the guessing game of which lightly-tested team will be better Friday night in Blacksburg. 

While I do lean toward Pitt +3, the best betting angle on this game isn’t a side.

Virginia Tech vs. Pitt Prediction

I am predicting an under in Friday night’s game between Pitt and Virginia Tech.

There are several stats and trends I think support this bet. Both teams have mediocre offenses but good defenses this year. 

This is especially true of Pittsburgh, which ranks eighth nationally in EPA/rush allowed and second nationally in defensive success rate. Virginia Tech’s offense, which struggled to score at Boston College last week, will have a hard time scoring 20 points against Pitt.

Pitt has mostly won on offense with its passing game so far, but Virginia Tech’s back end ranks 45th in EPA/pass allowed – not great, but decent enough. Add in the Lane Stadium crowd, and I think Pittsburgh’s offense will end up settling for field goals instead of touchdowns.

Since 2015, the under is 4-1 in this series when the game is played in Blacksburg, and weeknight games generally trend toward unders in the first place. 

This number is down from its opening mark of 56.5, but I’d still play the under at the current number.

Prediction: Pitt/Virginia Tech Under 54.5