Argentina vs. Canada Prediction, Odds | Copa America 2024

min read
Lionel Messi's long-awaited World Cup championship has many soccer fans asking: When Was the Last Time Argentina Won the World Cup?
(AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Jul 09, 2024, 9:21 AM
  • Argentina (-275) is the favorite on the three-way moneyline.
  • The Same Game Parlay worth backing in Tuesday’s semifinal match.
  • Anytime goal scorer prices along with a corner kicks prediction.

In a rematch from the group stage, defending World Cup winners Argentina battle Canada in the Copa America semifinals. 

Both nations required spot kicks to advance from the quarterfinals. Argentina slipped past Ecuador on spot kicks, while Canada advanced past Venezuela. 

That ended a three-match winning streak for Lionel Messi’s side, who defeated Canada 2-0 in their opening match. 

Here’s a look at the Copa America odds and my prediction for Tuesday’s match. 

Argentina vs. Canada Odds

  • Argentina Moneyline: -275
  • Canada Moneyline: +850
  • Draw Moneyline: +375
  • Total Goals: 2.5 (-105/-135)
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (+140), No (-210)

Argentina vs. Canada Prediction

Based on Argentina’s dominant showing in the group match, my prediction for this Copa America match is a Same Game Parlay: Argentina Moneyline and Under 3.5 Goals (-115). 

The Argentines proved simultaneously lucky and unlucky in the group match. 

Although they conceded zero goals off 1.16 expected, they scored only twice off three expected goals, per fotmob.com. 

While there’s a case to be made Canada could score, it’s my opinion they were lucky to create that many high-quality chances. 

Argentina had a breakaway worth 0.84 post-shot expected goals saved on eight minutes. If that shot goes in, Argentina likely plays a more defensive game and limits Canadian chances. 

After all, Canada created 66% of their xG total from a neutral game state. 

That also makes this a good sell-high spot on manager Jesse Marsch’s team, who hasn’t played from behind since that opening match. 

Additionally, Argentina’s defense has surrendered under one non-penalty expected goal in three straight matches. 

Given the heavy juice on both teams to score: “no,” Argentina would need to bag four on their own to clear this number. 

If they establish an early advantage, that feels unlikely for a team that has seen only two of eight matches this calendar year clear 3.5 goals. 

As a result, I’ll buy low on Argentina and back them to ease into the Copa America final. 

Argentina vs. Canada: Who will score a goal? 

Based on current betting odds, Argentina talisman Lionel Messi (+100) has the best chance to score a goal. 

Messi is tailed on the odds board by teammates Lautaro Martinez (+115) and Julian Alvarez (+170). 

Argentina vs. Canada: How many corner kicks will there be? 

Based on the current line of 9.5 corner kicks, I predict the UNDER will hit on Tuesday. 

Although these sides combined for 11 corner kicks in their group meeting, I expect a more cagey matchup in the knockout round. 

Plus, if Argentina gain an early advantage rather than playing on level terms for an extended period, it likely sees the corner kick count decrease.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.