• The Padres are -210 favorites vs the Marlins
• Marlins vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Marlins / Padres TV Channel: MATV | PDTV

The Miami Marlins (+170) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-210) on September 18, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 pm in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Marlins are 76-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 83-67 ATS.

Marlins vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Tyler Phillips 5-6, 3.57 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 2-2, 3.60 ERA

Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB game with 63.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jakob Marsee has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+26.00 Units / 520% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+14.55 Units / 29% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+13.05 Units / 44% ROI)
• Jakob Marsee has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.40 Units / 34% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+10.40 Units / 17% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Luis Campusano has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+17.60 Units / 196% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Samad Taylor has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.05 Units / 33% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+8.85 Units / 41% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+8.35 Units / 75% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.40 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.50 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.15 Units / 83% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 40 games at home (+16.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+12.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.30 Units / 35% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 89% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.35 Units / 48% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 78-73 against the Run Line (-5.2 Units / -2.56% ROI).

• 76-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -0.06% ROI
• 77-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.45 Units / -1.45% ROI
• 72-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.3 Units / -7.33% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 83-67 against the Run Line (+11.9 Units / 5.94% ROI).

• 84-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.25 Units / 4.37% ROI
• 71-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.7 Units / -8.1% ROI
• 77-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.5 Units / -0.3% ROI

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Marlins are 43-32 (.573) after a win this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

The Marlins are just 32-45 (.416) after a loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Marlins were just 7-42 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Padres are 13-8 (.619) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Padres are 59-8 (.881) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Padres are 46-29 (.613) at home this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Padres are 66-2 (.971) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .308 with runners on base this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .284 this season — best in MLB.

The Marlins have an xwOBA of just .363 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Marlins are batting just .204 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Padres Hitting Stats & Trends

The Padres are batting .358 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Padres hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters are slugging just .371 at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters have grounded into 120 double plays in 1,007 opportunities (12%) this season — highest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

The Marlins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have allowed 126 stolen bases this season — tied for 5th most in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have picked-off 2 runners from first base this season — fewest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Padres Pitching Stats & Trends

The Padres have allowed 1.07 runs per game (164/153) in late innings this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Padres have won 44% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.36 (688.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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