• The Padres are -160 favorites vs the Marlins
• Marlins vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Marlins / Padres TV Channel: MATV | PDTV

The Miami Marlins (+135) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-160) on September 19, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 pm in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Marlins are 76-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 84-67 ATS.

Marlins vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Perez 7-11, 4.02 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Casey Mize 6-9, 3.68 ERA

Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jakob Marsee has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+25.00 Units / 417% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+15.60 Units / 52% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+13.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• Eury Perez has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 28% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+9.30 Units / 62% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Luis Campusano has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+17.60 Units / 196% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.00 Units / 82% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 9 games (+9.80 Units / 91% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 36% ROI)
• Samad Taylor has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.85 Units / 32% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.70 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.15 Units / 52% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 40 games at home (+16.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+11.90 Units / 27% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games (+10.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in their last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 89% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.70 Units / 17% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 78-74 against the Run Line (-6.5 Units / -3.18% ROI).

• 76-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -0.62% ROI
• 78-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -0.85% ROI
• 72-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.4 Units / -7.94% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 84-67 against the Run Line (+13 Units / 6.46% ROI).

• 85-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.25 Units / 4.85% ROI
• 72-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.7 Units / -7.46% ROI
• 77-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.6 Units / -0.95% ROI

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Marlins were just 45-10 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.

The Marlins were just 62-100 (.383) in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins are just 31-107 (.225) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Padres are 60-5 (.923) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Padres are 47-29 (.618) at home this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Padres are 13-8 (.619) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Padres are 60-8 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .284 this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .308 with runners on base this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 37% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of .746 (1,848 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 4th best in MLB.

Padres Hitting Stats & Trends

Padres hitters have grounded into 121 double plays in 1,020 opportunities (12%) this season — highest in MLB.

The Padres have won 94% of home games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Padres hitters have an OPS of .740 (3,004 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Padres have a winning percentage of 62% at home this season — 5th best in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

The Marlins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have picked-off 2 runners from first base this season — fewest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have had second base stolen on them 114 times this season — 5th most in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have allowed 67 home runs at home this season — 3rd fewest in MLB.

Padres Pitching Stats & Trends

Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.34 (697.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Padres pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Padres pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 302 times this season — 4th fewest in MLB.

Padres pitchers have won 34% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 5th highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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