• The Padres are -150 favorites vs the Marlins
• Marlins vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Marlins / Padres TV Channel: MATV | PDTV

The Miami Marlins (+125) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-150) on September 20, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 pm in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Marlins are 76-79 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 84-68 ATS.

Marlins vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 13-10, 3.87 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Walker Buehler 8-6, 4.62 ERA

Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jakob Marsee has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+24.00 Units / 343% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+13.60 Units / 47% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• Heriberto Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+10.45 Units / 104% ROI)
• Jakob Marsee has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.15 Units / 68% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Luis Campusano has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+16.60 Units / 166% ROI)
• Dustin Harris has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 71% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.75 Units / 43% ROI)
• Dustin Harris has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.65 Units / 45% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games (+9.55 Units / 93% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.50 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 46% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 40 games at home (+18.10 Units / 34% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in their last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 89% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games (+10.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.40 Units / 63% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 79-74 against the Run Line (-5.5 Units / -2.67% ROI).

• 76-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -1.17% ROI
• 79-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -0.26% ROI
• 72-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.5 Units / -8.53% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 84-68 against the Run Line (+12 Units / 5.93% ROI).

• 86-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.25 Units / 5.34% ROI
• 73-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.7 Units / -6.83% ROI
• 77-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -1.59% ROI

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Marlins were just 62-100 (.383) in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Marlins were just 7-42 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Marlins were just 45-10 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Padres are 68-2 (.971) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Padres are 61-5 (.924) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Padres are 61-8 (.884) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Padres are 48-29 (.623) at home this season — 5th best in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .284 this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .309 with runners on base this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of .745 (1,862 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 5th best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 37% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Padres Hitting Stats & Trends

The Padres are batting .362 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Padres hitters are slugging .419 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Padres are batting .250 on the road this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

Padres hitters are slugging .616 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have had second base stolen on them 117 times this season — tied for 4th most in MLB.

The Marlins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 65% of opposing batters this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have allowed 130 stolen bases this season — 5th most in MLB.

Padres Pitching Stats & Trends

The Padres have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.37 (707.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Padres pitchers have won 35% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB.

Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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