The contests are underway! Across North America, office pools and friend groups have launched NFL pick pools, challenging participants to make a handful of NFL picks against the spread. That even includes BetMGM retail locations, which hosted the BetMGM Signature Series of contests.
Now, sorting through NFL lines and contest odds will be a weekly chore for some – assuming it wasn’t already.
Winning pools and contests against other human players is a different exercise than beating the sportsbook. Because your likely avenue to pool success is by picking differently than other players, it’s always good to consider popularity when selecting a contest bet.
Last week got off to a lousy start. Not only were my recommended Week 1 contest picks both losers, but the Texans also ended up as one of the more popular bets of the week. It was a bad outing from me, though Week 1 is known to be a bit of a crapshoot anyway.
This week, bettors have something to react to, which makes potential contest popularity a lot more predictable. Let’s do it.
Chiefs vs. Colts Prediction
The Chiefs and Colts could not be thought of more differently right now, just a few days into a new NFL season. After Indy got blown off the field by the Ravens in Week 1, the Colts instantly became an overlooked team. And when the Chiefs annihilated the Broncos during Monday Night Football, the Week 2 stage was set for a completely sideways ticket split.
As of right now, Chiefs -6.5 is the No. 5 most popular NFL bet this weekend at BetMGM. It’s No. 4 if measuring handle instead of tickets. Everyone wants a piece of the Chiefs, who appear to be restored to greatness with the healthy return of quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
The Colts, by contrast, are the No. 3 least popular NFL spread this weekend. Only the Browns and Titans have attracted less action.
Despite the huge difference in market sentiment, the number really hasn’t moved all week. And when you factor in Kansas City’s short week and the general shenanigans from Week 1 that went in Kansas City’s favor, it’s easy to imagine a scenario where the market is simply too high on the Chiefs’ odds here. I like the Colts as a wise-but-unpopular contest bet.
NFL Contest Prediction: Colts +6.5
Chargers vs Raiders Prediction
If you’re in a Survivor contest, the Chargers would be a pretty scary team to play this week. You have no margin for error – do you really want to back an LA team that looked as disorganized as it did last week against the Cardinals?
But ATS contests are different because you’re simply spreading picks around. The Chargers will still be an unpopular play this week because of the Arizona debacle, but the lower stakes on a single spread pick make them far more appealing as a calculated risk.
Los Angeles has a brutal schedule coming up, and if the Chargers start 0-2, the season will feel like it’s over when it’s barely begun. They have to have this game.
The opponent is a Raiders team without its best pass-catching weapon in Brock Bowers. If your contest has the Chargers at -6.5 instead of -7, this is a great opportunity to get a desperate team under a key number.
NFL Contest Prediction: Chargers -6.5
Best Contest Bets for NFL Week 2
- Colts +6.5
- Chargers -6.5
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