- The Browns are a 5.5-point home underdog against the Bengals.
- The Bengals have lost each of their last six road openers.
- My Browns vs Bengals prediction is for the Browns to cover the spread.
An AFC North matchup in Week 1 pits the Cleveland Browns against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Cleveland, one year removed from a playoff berth, sank to 3-14 in 2024. In slightly better news for Cleveland, two of their three wins came within the division.
Cincinnati missed the playoffs last season thanks to a horrific defense. Among Cincinnati’s eight losses last year, half saw the Bengals’ offense score 30 or more points.
Bet on Browns vs. Bengals and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Browns vs. Bengals: NFL Week 1 Odds
Browns vs. Bengals Prediction
Based on the success of divisional home underdogs in Week 1 and the Bengals’ weak defense, my Browns vs Bengals prediction is the Browns Spread (+5.5, -110).
Little reason exists to take a stance on this side immediately. For me to have confidence in backing the Browns, I want to guarantee Joe Flacco starts the opener.
Even if bettors get Flacco, Cleveland has a big mountain to climb to cover this number.
On paper, a big gap exists between these teams based on last season’s metrics. Cincinnati finished 13th in total DVOA while the Browns ranked 32nd, per ftnfantasy.com.
The Browns, which finished second in defensive DVOA in 2023, dropped to 25th in 2024. The small silver lining: Cleveland’s defensive schedule difficulty rose five places year over year.
A case for optimism does exist with Cleveland, though. Generally speaking, defense proves far more fluid year over year than a team’s offensive record.
Cleveland also amassed the sixth-most adjusted games lost to injury last season, which could explain the eight-win decline.
I also remain encouraged by Cleveland’s play in the trenches. Per ESPN, the Browns finished fifth or better in both pass-rush win rate and run-stop win rate last season.
Along the offensive line, the Browns finished 10th and 14th in the respective offensive metrics.
With competent quarterback play, I have enough faith in the Browns’ defense to help keep this game close.
Now for the historical angle: Since 2005, divisional home underdogs in games 1-3 are 66-38-3 ATS (63.5%).
When those dogs sit at +5.5 or shorter: 51-27-3 ATS, a 65.4% cover rate. Pair that with Cincinnati’s ATS struggles early in the season, and it’s Cleveland or nothing in Week 1.
Betting Browns vs. Bengals: NFL Public Betting
*Data is reflective as of Tuesday, July 8.*
| Team | Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ATS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 70% | 67% | 43% | 37% |
| Browns | 30% | 33% | 57% | 63% |
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