Buccaneers vs Bears Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 9

• The Bears are -6 point favorites vs the Buccaneers
• Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
• Watch this game on NBC | PEAC

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5-0) visit Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears (6-2-0) on Nov. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 pm in Chicago, IL.

The Bears are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).

The Buccaneers vs. Bears Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.

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Buccaneers vs. Bears Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Buccaneers vs. Bears Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bears will win this game with 59.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Buccaneers vs Bears Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bears will cover the spread with 51.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today

• Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.00 Units / 45% ROI)
• Bucky Irving has hit the Carries Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.75 Units / 48% ROI)
• Bucky Irving has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.65 Units / 48% ROI)
• Cade Otton has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.25 Units / 36% ROI)
• Chase McLaughlin has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.90 Units / 27% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bears players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bears Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Rome Odunze has hit the Longest Reception Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.65 Units / 60% ROI)
• Luther Burden III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.35 Units / 45% ROI)
• Luther Burden III has hit the Longest Reception Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 44% ROI)
• Caleb Williams has hit the Completions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.75 Units / 43% ROI)
• Caleb Williams has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 42% ROI)

Buccaneers Best Bets:

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.25 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+4.10 Units / 49% ROI)

Bears Best Bets:

• The Chicago Bears have hit the 2H Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+10.40 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Chicago Bears have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.50 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Chicago Bears have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Chicago Bears have covered the 2H Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 27% ROI)

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers are 3-4 (-1.4 Units / -15.82% ROI).

• Buccaneers are 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -15.72% ROI
• Buccaneers are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
• BuccaneersBuccaneersBuccaneers are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears are 6-2 (+3.8 Units / 43.68% ROI).

• Bears are 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 33.77% ROI
• Bears are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
• Bears are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears

Buccaneers are 5-11 (.312) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game (9th-worst in NFL) and .625 when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the 2025 season (10th-best in NFL).

The Buccaneers are winless (0-4) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .429.

The Buccaneers are 2-13 (.133) when committing 1 or more turnovers since the 2025 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .383.

The Buccaneers are 2-10 (.167) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .498.

Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bears are 15-4 (.789) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2025 season — T-9th-best in NFL. The Seahawks have turned the ball over 42 times since the 2025 season — most in NFL.

The Bears are 4-0 (1.000) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — T-best in NFL. The Seahawks have turned the ball over 15 times this season — T-most in NFL.

The Bears are 4-2 (.667) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2025 season — T-10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .594.

The Bears are undefeated (5-0) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .506.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears are 15-4 (.789) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2025 season — T-9th-best in NFL. The Seahawks have turned the ball over 42 times since the 2025 season — most in NFL.

The Bears are 4-0 (1.000) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — T-best in NFL. The Seahawks have turned the ball over 15 times this season — T-most in NFL.

The Bears have averaged just -0.04 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2025 season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Seahawks have allowed just -0.35 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL.

The Buccaneers went three and out on 10% of their drives last week — T-4th-best in NFL. The Falcons forced three and outs on 0% of opponent drives last week — T-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have been successful on 47.9% of rush attempts with motion this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed a success rate of 48.4% on rush attempts against motion this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers were successful on 53.2% of rush attempts last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed a success rate of 56.5% on rush attempts last week — 2nd-worst in NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers started 4 drives inside opposing territory in Week 7 — most in NFL.

The Buccaneers threw the ball 18% of the time (11 Pass Attempts/60 plays) in Week 7 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Buccaneers ran the ball on 78% of plays (47 carries/60 plays) in Week 7 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

15% of the Buccaneers offense’s first downs (3 of 20) came through the air in Week 7 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 61%.

Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats

The Bears converted late downs on 2 of 15 plays (13%) with over 10 yards to go in Week 7 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 3%.

The Bears faced a blitz 23 times in Week 7 — most in NFL.

The Bears have rushed for 14 TDs this season — T-most in NFL.

The Bears faced a blitz 35% of the time in Week 7 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers defense have allowed -1.04 epa per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.14.

The Buccaneers defense have allowed -1.48 epa per play on contested throws since Week 4 — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.13.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed a late down conversion rate of 4% when opponents had 4-6 yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9%.

Only 28% of the plays ran against the Buccaneers were in their own territory in Week 7 — best in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats

The Bears defense have allowed 10.2 yards per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.

The Bears defense have allowed 11.7 yards per play with a light front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6.3.

The Bears defense have forced three and outs on 31% of opponent drives this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Bears defense has allowed 8.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (2,302 yards / 264 touches) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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