- The Chargers are predicted to be a two-point home favorite against the Texans.
- Justin Herbert is 41-12-2 ATS when his defense allows under 24.5 points.
- My Chargers vs Texans prediction is for the Chargers (-2) to cover the spread.
Two teams chasing a division title will meet Saturday in LA as the Chargers host the Texans.
Both teams enter this matchup riding long winning streaks. Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers have won four straight and seven of eight to sit a game behind Denver in the AFC West.
Houston arrives in LA amidst a seven-game winning streak. After starting 0-3, the Texans trail the Jaguars by only one game in the AFC South.
Bet on Chargers vs. Texans and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Chargers vs. Texans: NFL Week 17 Odds
Chargers vs. Texans Prediction
Based on the Chargers’ defensive record and my lack of trust in the Texans offense, my Chargers vs Texans prediction is the Los Angeles Chargers Spread (-2, -110).
By all accounts, the game comes down to how Jesse Minter’s defense handles the Texans offense.
Houston’s defense is so good that the team is unbeaten when the offense scores 20 or more points. Meanwhile, the Chargers are unbeaten when the defense allows 20 or fewer points.
I worry a lot about how Justin Herbert looked when these teams met in the wild-card round last year.
But the fact remains, Herbert is 41-12-2 ATS when his defense keeps an opponent under 24 points.
Houston looked really bad offensively against the Raiders on Sunday. Nick Caley’s unit managed only 4.4 yards per play in a 23-21 win.
The Texans could have easily lost if not for an early defensive touchdown against Las Vegas.
This season, teams have beaten the Chargers by running the ball effectively. All four of the Chargers’ losses have come when the team allows over 100 yards on the ground.
Houston’s offense has achieved that feat five times in the last eight games. But even over that span, the underlying metrics haven’t really improved.
For the season, the Texans rank 30th in rush EPA per play and 31st in rushing success rate. Since Week 8, the offense sits 30th in both categories.
Over that same span, the Chargers lead the NFL in both corresponding defensive categories.
Could the Texans defense force turnovers and score via those achievements? Sure. But I’m worried about the defense allowing over 100 yards rushing to Ashton Jeanty.
If the Chargers can run the ball effectively, it takes pressure off a depleted offensive line. Accordingly, it’s the Chargers or nothing on Saturday.
Betting Chargers vs. Texans: NFL Public Betting
Check back later in the week for Chargers vs Texans public betting data and insights.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
