Chiefs vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 3

• The Chiefs are -10.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins
• Total (Over/Under): 45 points
• Watch this game on CBS

The Kansas City Chiefs (2-0-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (0-2-0) on Sep. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Miami, FL.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-125).

The Chiefs vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 45 total points for the game.

Bet now on Dolphins vs Chiefs & all NFL games with BetMGM

Chiefs vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Chiefs vs. Dolphins Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 74.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Chiefs vs Dolphins Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 68.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Dolphins vs Chiefs and all NFL games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

• Brashard Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.05 Units / 92% ROI)
• Kenneth Walker III has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+5.40 Units / 74% ROI)
• Kenneth Walker III has hit the Longest Rush Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+4.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• Patrick Mahomes has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.75 Units / 32% ROI)
• Xavier Worthy has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.35 Units / 26% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Devon Achane has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 86% ROI)
• Ollie Gordon II has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 55% ROI)
• Devon Achane has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.30 Units / 36% ROI)
• Ollie Gordon II has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.10 Units / 82% ROI)
• Devon Achane has hit the Carries Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 66% ROI)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Dolphins vs Chiefs

Chiefs Best Bets:

• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Team Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.30 Units / 96% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.85 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 16 games (+1.15 Units / 6% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

• The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games at home (+3.55 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Miami Dolphins have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Miami Dolphins have covered the 2Q Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.80 Units / 15% ROI)

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• Chiefs are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 49.38% ROI
• Chiefs are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
• ChiefsChiefsChiefs are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 0-2 (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).

• Dolphins are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
• Dolphins are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
• Dolphins are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Chiefs were winless (0-9) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.

The Chiefs are 1-9 (.100) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.

The Chiefs are 2-10 (.167) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2025 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.

The Chiefs are winless (0-7) when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .328.

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

Dolphins are 2-11 (.154) when allowing 100 yards rushing or more (T-4th-worst in NFL) and .833 when allowing less than 100 yards rushing since the 2025 season (9th-best in NFL).

Dolphins are 5-1 (.833) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns (T-3rd-best in NFL) and just .154 when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2025 season (T-worst in NFL).

Dolphins are 3-11 (.214) when allowing 10 or more rushes of 4+ yards (T-6th-worst in NFL) and .800 when allowing 1ess than 10 plays of 4+ yards rushing since the 2025 season (T-9th-best in NFL).

The Dolphins are winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .297.

Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have been successful on just 33.3% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed a success rate of just 39.5% on pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Dolphins have been successful on just 22.2% of rush attempts with motion this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed a success rate of just 28.6% on rush attempts against motion this season — T-3rd-best in NFL.

The Dolphins have an average drive start position from the 27.2 yard line since the 2025 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed an average drive start position from the 26.8 yard line since the 2025 season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Chiefs have run 19.0% offensive plays in the red zone this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed their opponent to run 20.7% of plays in the red zone this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 13.5% of pass attempts this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Dolphins have pressured opposing QBs on just 11.5% of passing plays this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs threw the ball 60.3% of the time last week — 3rd-highest in NFL. The Dolphins allowed 13.0 yards per dropback last week — worst in NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats

The Chiefs have converted late downs on 2 of 13 plays (15%) with over 10 yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 4%.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 72% of rush attempts against a stacked front since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Chiefs averaged -0.75 epa per play on contested throws last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.11.

The Chiefs have targeted WRs 39% of the time (29 Pass Attempts/74 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 56%.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 19% of rush attempts in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 22% of plays in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 29% of plays in the 3rd quarter since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Dolphins have scored on 12% of their drives (6/51) in the 3rd quarter since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 33%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats

The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 19% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Chiefs defense has not allowed a first down on a pass on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 30%.

The Chiefs defense allowed a fourth down conversion rate of 25% in short yardage situations last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 63%.

The Chiefs defense did not force a three and out in Week 2 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats

The Dolphins defense have yet to sack an opposing QBs (52 pass attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

The Dolphins defense allowed 13.0 yards per dropback (287 yards/22 attempts) in Week 2 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6.7.

The Dolphins defense has allowed a late down conversion rate of 38% in short yardage situations this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Dolphins defense allowed first downs on 73% of pass attempts in Week 2 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Dolphins vs Chiefs and all NFL games with BetMGM

More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

More NFL Odds at BetMGM

If you’re looking for more NFL odds, check out the sportsbook’s betting markets throughout the year.

From futures like Rams Super Bowl odds and Lions odds to make the playoffs to game odds like spread, money lines, and totals, there’s never a break in the action.

Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!