Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction: AFC Championship Odds, Betting Picks

On Sunday in Kansas City, the Bills will try to end the Chiefs’ bid for a three-peat. 

Kansas City cruised to victory on Saturday against the Texans with a 23-14 win. While the Chiefs won outright, they failed to cover the closing spread thanks to a last-gasp safety. 

Buffalo survived a two-point conversion attempt to capture a 27-25 win over the Ravens. Now, they’ll look to beat the Chiefs for the second time this season after winning 30-21 in Buffalo. 

Bet on Chiefs vs. Bills and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

AFC Championship Odds: Chiefs vs. Bills 

Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction

Based on Patrick Mahomes’ strong record as a short favorite and the Bills’ lackluster defensive play, my Chiefs vs. Bills prediction is the Chiefs Moneyline (-130). 

The prominent takeaway from Buffalo’s win over Baltimore in the divisional round? Their defense could not get off the field without the Ravens getting in their own way. 

Baltimore never punted once in Buffalo. They either drove the field and scored or turned the ball over to Buffalo. 

So much had to go right for Buffalo to win that game. Lamar Jackson fumbled on the Bills 28-yard line, and the Ravens missed a pair of two-point conversions. 

Ask yourself whether you think the same will transpire for Kansas City, which also has an extra day of rest over the Bills, who are forced to travel for Sunday’s game. 

There’s also the small matter that Mahomes rarely fails ATS as a short favorite. 

For his career, the three-time Super Bowl MVP is 27-9-1 ATS when listed between -3 and +4.5, including 14-7 ATS between -3 and -0.5. 

Meaningful differences exist from the Week 11 meeting between these teams. 

Isiah Pacheco missed that game for Kansas City, while corner Jaylen Watson also failed to feature. 

Buffalo sustained some key injuries that could further affect their defensive outlook on Sunday. Both Taylor Rapp and Taron Johnson exited with injuries. 

The Bills’ struggles defending the middle also continued as Andrews and Isaiah Likely combined to record nine catches for 134 yards and a touchdown. 

If the Bills can’t defend playoff Travis Kelce, their defense likely struggles once again. As a result, back the Chiefs to reach their third consecutive Super Bowl. 

Chiefs vs. Bills Prop Bets

Khalil Shakir (-150) More Receiving Yards Than Xavier Worthy

Based on Shakir’s favorable matchup in the slot and Worthy’s struggles against zone coverage, I predict Shakir (-150) will accumulate more receiving yards. 

This season, Shakir ran 76% of his routes against the slot. That’s important against the Chiefs because their two best corners primarily operate on the edges. 

Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson rarely see action from the slot. That places Shakir against Chamarri Conner in a primarily man-to-man pass defense. 

Conner allowed 376 yards to opposing receivers from the slot, the worst mark on the Chiefs and 17th-worst in the NFL. 

Plus, Worthy performs better against man coverage compared to zone. Unfortunately for the rookie, he faces a Bills defense that primarily runs the latter. 

Worthy also runs a plurality of routes from the edges. That’s where the strength of the Bills pass defense sits, though. 

Entering the AFC Championship, Buffalo ranks 13th in DVOA on the left and 16th defending the right. Meanwhile, they’re 31st through the middle. 

Based on that fact, expect a strong day for the Kansas City tight ends and a lower output from Worthy.

Both Teams to Score 3+ Touchdowns: “Yes” (+170)

Based on Buffalo’s weak record against strong offenses and their success against comparably weak pass defenses, I predict both teams score three or more touchdowns. 

The Bills defense has played seven games this season against teams 11th or better in offensive DVOA. Six of those teams scored three or more touchdowns, including the Chiefs in Buffalo. 

Kansas City scored three or more touchdowns in 10 of 17 games with Mahomes starting. In their last eight games against Buffalo, they’ve scored at least three five times. 

Buffalo has failed to score three or more touchdowns only twice this season: at Houston and Baltimore. 

But there’s a common thread with those teams: Both rank 9th or better in pass defense DVOA. 

Place the Bills offense against a defense 10th or worse in that category, and bettors will find they’ve scored at least three touchdowns 12 times in 12 games. 

The Chiefs, meanwhile, have faced only five teams 10th or better in offensive DVOA. 

While only two of those teams scored at least three touchdowns, all five scored at least twice. Based on price alone, this prop is worth consideration from bettors.

Betting Chiefs vs. Bills: NFL Public Betting