Colts vs. Lions Prediction: NFL Week 12 Odds, Betting Picks

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Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) during warmups before an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings, Saturday, Dec. 17, 2022 in Minneapolis.
(AP Photo/Stacy Bengs)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Nov 22, 2024, 10:22 AM
  • The Colts are an 8-point home underdog against the Lions.
  • The Lions are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their previous eight contests.
  • My Colts vs. Lions prediction is for Indianapolis to cover the spread.

The Lions will go for a ninth straight win on Sunday in Indy against the Colts as big favorites.ย 

Detroit earned its eighth straight win on Sunday in a 52-6 blowout of the Jaguars. After that win, Detroit finds itself as the new favorite in the Super Bowl 59 odds.ย 

The Colts captured a surprise Week 11 victory against the Jets as four-point underdogs, ending a three-game losing streak. With the win, the Colts sit only a game outside the final playoff spot.ย 

Bet on Colts vs. Lions and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.ย 

NFL Week 12 Odds: Colts vs. Lions

Colts vs. Lions Prediction

Based on the success of home underdogs against teams off a blowout win, my Colts vs. Lions prediction is the Colts Spread (+8, -110).ย 

Time to say a prayer, hold our noses and back the Colts to keep this game respectable.ย 

Thereโ€™s a real chance the Lions break every betting system, but Iโ€™m happy to fade a team thatโ€™s going to be tied into every parlay, teaser and will dominate the spread ticket count.ย 

Essentially, this is a bet on the Colts defense limiting Detroitโ€™s high-powered offense.ย 

For all of Indyโ€™s issues this season, theyโ€™re 11th in expected points added per play and 13th in defensive success rate.ย 

Just against the run, theyโ€™re 12th in both defensive rush EPA per play and rushing success rate, per rbsdm.com.ย 

This is also a Detroit team that has struggled to cover big numbers away from home. Only twice in five road games has Detroit won by double digits with one coming due to a defensive score.ย 

Comparatively, the Lions have covered this spread in three straight home games.ย 

History also suggests this is a good spot to back the Colts.ย 

Since 2003, home underdogs at +7 or higher against a favorite off a win by 14 or more points are 59.6% ATS.ย 

Hereโ€™s the kicker: When that underdog has either won their last game or finds itself on a two-game losing streak, they jump to 38-11-1 ATS (77.6%).ย 

Just when that team is on a one-game winning streak, theyโ€™re 20-6-1 ATS.ย 

Grab the Colts so long as they remain at +7.5 or better in Week 12.ย 

Betting Colts vs. Lions: NFL Public Betting

Bets% (Spread)Money% (Spread)Bets% (ML)Money% (ML)
Lions72%69%65%78%
Colts28%31%35%22%

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.