NFL Week 1 Picks 2026: Bets including Vikings, Texans

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 1 based on NFL odds at BetMGM.

Odds for predictions are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

NFL Week 1 Expert Picks 2026

Texans vs Bills Prediction: Houston Texans Moneyline (-105)

Based on the Texans’ defensive advantages over a normally strong Bills offense and Buffalo’s lackluster defensive record, my Texans vs Bills prediction is the Texans Moneyline (-105).

When these teams met in Week 12 last year, Buffalo’s offense struggled immensely.

For the entire 2025 regular season, Buffalo recorded the following advanced metrics: +0.145 EPA per play and 48.2% success rate, including 50.5% dropback success rate.

When the offense went up against Houston: -0.164 EPA per play, 36.9% offensive success rate, 35.6% dropback success rate.

Dalton Kincaid missed the game for Buffalo, which in theory should provide a boost. However, Houston also operated without safety Jalen Pitre as a six-point underdog.

Davis Mills and Woody Marks combined to move the ball effectively on Buffalo’s defense. The ground game in particular proved very efficient, producing a 54.2% rushing success rate.

Comparatively, Houston produced a 35.6% rushing success over the entire season.

David Montgomery’s arrival, plus some new pieces along the offensive line, should allow for continued offensive success by the Texans.

A change from Mills to C.J. Stroud adds to the ceiling case. Meanwhile, the Texans defense directly mitigates all the strengths of Buffalo’s offense.

Buffalo’s normally reliable offensive line faces one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. The Bills ranked fourth in PFF’s pass-blocking grades, but posted their worst grade against Houston.

The same occurred when these teams played in Week 5 of the 2024 season. Buffalo averaged a 74.7 offensive pass-blocking grade, which fell to 57.8 against the Texans.

More concerning is how the Bills handle new additions to Houston’s defense.

Reed Blankenship arrives to play safety after a strong tenure with the Eagles, while Jadeveon Clowney adds depth at edge.

Those additions lead me to expect another strong performance from the Texans defense. It leads me to predict a third straight Houston win against Buffalo.

Vikings vs Packers Prediction: Minnesota Vikings Moneyline (-120)

Based on the Packers’ expected offensive line regression against a blitz-heavy defense and Micah Parsons’ absence, my Vikings vs Packers prediction is the Vikings Moneyline (-120).

It’s difficult to place much stock in either Green Bay-Minnesota matchup last year. Green Bay won 23-6 at home while forcing three defensive turnovers against J.J. McCarthy.

The Vikings earned revenge in Week 18, but the 16-3 win came against Clayton Tune.

If there’s a unit that should take a step forward from both games last year, it’s the Vikings offense.

Presuming Kyler Murray starts, it should open up the passing game against weak Green Bay corners. Late last year, bettors saw the secondary struggle without a coherent pass rush.

From Week 13 onward – a sample that includes Parsons – the Packers ranked 28th in EPA per play and 29th in defensive success rate.

That includes a Week 15 trip to Denver where Bo Nix shredded Green Bay for over 300 yards and four touchdowns.

What really worries me about the Packers is the offensive line. The unit lost Rasheed Walker and Elgton Jenkins a season after ranking 25th in PFF’s pass-blocking grades.

Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and Emmanuel Wilson all departed as well. It leaves Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden and Christian Watson to try and exploit a strong defense.

If you go back two seasons, Green Bay never produced much offensively until the game was out of reach.

The Packers lost 31-29 in Week 4, but won the fourth quarter 22-3. Then they fell 27-25 in Minnesota, but won the fourth quarter 15-0.

Those performances also came with superior skill players and a better offensive line compared to this matchup.

Ultimately, Green Bay possesses the worst unit on the field in a Parsons-less defense. Without a coherent pass rush, I foresee Kevin O’Connell finding ways to exploit a weak corner group.

Those factors lead me to predict the Vikings start the season with a home victory.

Bengals vs Buccaneers Prediction: Total Under 51 Points (-125)

Based on Todd Bowles’ blitzing tendencies and the Bengals’ misleading defensive record late last year, my Bengals vs Buccaneers prediction is the Total Under 51 Points (-125).

Virtually no outcome would surprise me in this game. Both teams possess advantages against the other – it just depends which ones actually play out on the field.

Let’s start with the Bengals offense. If you’re Cincinnati, the concern here is that Joe Burrow faced minimal snaps against blitz-heavy teams last year.

Bowles blitzed at a 30.7% rate in 2025, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. When the Bucs didn’t blitz, the defense generated pressure at the league’s 17th-highest rate.

Tampa Bay used draft picks and free agency to try and bolster the pass rush. It’ll have to work to force quick throws as it’s my belief Cincy’s receivers pose a mismatch for Tampa’s corners.

However, Vea poses a massive challenge for a weak Bengals interior. Both he and first-round pick Ruben Bain Jr. could pose problems for the entire offensive line.

If the Bucs force Burrow into short throws, it likely leads to fewer chunk plays that correlate with a high-scoring game.

Where I’m more confident is the Bengals defense doing enough to keep Tampa’s offense at bay. While the Bucs’ offensive line remains amongst the best in the league, clear weaknesses exist.

Those shortcomings sit along the interior, which will face Dexter Lawrence. How they’ll cope with that matchup remains to be seen, but it’s a nightmare on paper.

That’s even before we get to the fact Tampa Bay lost Mike Evans in free agency. Additionally, Cincinnati posted decent defensive metrics toward the end of last season.

Early in the year, the Bengals played terribly. But against good opponents in Weeks 12-17, they played serviceably.

Over that timespan, the Bengals ranked 25th in EPA per play and 16th in success rate. Those games include three of nine opponent touchdowns via defense or special teams.

Broaden the sample to include games against Pittsburgh and Cleveland at each end and the figure rises to seven of nine touchdowns.

Eagles vs Commanders Prediction: Commanders Under 19.5 Points (+100)

Based on Washington’s lack of continuity at offensive coordinator and the Eagles’ defensive strength, my Eagles vs Commanders prediction is the Commanders Under 19.5 Points (+100).

Laremy Tunsil is likely done for the season. Outside Jayden Daniels, Washington is relying on an aging skill group to take on one of 2025’s top defensive units.

Philadelphia finished seventh in defensive DVOA last season, their second under DC Vic Fangio. En route to a Super Bowl win in 2024, the Eagles led the NFL.

Late last year, the Eagles kept much better offenses under this number. Green Bay scored seven points. The Lions and Bills both stayed under 12.5 points.

Washington started backups in both games against the Eagles last year. Even with Daniels available, we’ve seen the Commanders struggle in a hostile environment.

Albeit on short rest, Washington scored 18 on TNF two years ago at Lincoln Financial Field.

More worrisome is how Washington gets the ball back from Philadelphia to score points. The defense has consistently ranked amongst the league’s worst.

Minimal changes occurred this offseason to expect an uptick in quality. Irrespective of quarterback, Washington has yet to provide a solution for Saquon Barkley.

Add in some line movement on the full game over/under, and I predict the Eagles keep their rivals under a low benchmark.

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1 Public Consensus

As of September 11, five games have seen one side draw at least 70% of bets placed to cover the spread:

• Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) vs Atlanta Falcons: 86% of bets placed
• Chicago Bears (-3) at Carolina Panthers: 81% of bets placed
• Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) vs Washington Commanders: 79% of bets placed
• Detroit Lions (-7) vs New Orleans Saints: 75% of bets placed
• Denver Broncos (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs: 74% of bets placed

Get additional NFL public betting data on all Week 1 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. Additionally, betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.