NFL Expert Picks: Week 3 Bets Include Browns, Titans

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 3 based on NFL odds at BetMGM.

Odds for predictions are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

NFL Week 3 Picks 2026

Browns vs Panthers Prediction: Cleveland Browns Spread (+3, -118)

Based on the Panthers’ fraudulent margin against the Falcons and Cleveland’s defensive record, my Browns vs Panthers prediction is the Browns Spread (+3, -118).

The only thing I learned from Carolina’s Week 2 game is that the Falcons are a bad football team. Carolina won by 31 points after losing by 22 in Week 1, but they did so via turnovers.

Atlanta turned the ball over five times against the Panthers. On defense, Carolina scored once and added 10 more points on drives under 35 yards.

On offense, Carolina found success through the air against a weak secondary. Now they’re facing a strong Browns defense anchored by the secondary in a hostile environment.

Cleveland held Baker Mayfield to only 4.8 yards per attempt on Sunday. While the unit struggled against Jacksonville, I rate the Jaguars passing game ahead of Carolina’s.

As 8.5-point underdogs, Cleveland finished just 0.1 yards per play beneath Tampa Bay. It marks the second straight week they’ve finished within 0.8 yards per play.

So long as the Browns remain at +3 or better, I predict they cover the spread at home against a bad team.

Broncos vs Rams Prediction: Total Under 45.5 Points (-110)

Based on the matchup advantages for both defenses and my distrust of the Rams as a road favorite, my Broncos vs Rams prediction is the Total Under 45.5 Points (-110).

I question how this game goes over a key number without a Rams offensive explosion. In this game, I expect the offense to try to run the ball.

Schematically, Denver poses a tricky matchup for Los Angeles. Corners Riley Moss and Patrick Surtain II will trouble Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

It showed in Week 2 as the Broncos’ defense held firm against a good Jaguars offense. Jacksonville mustered a measly 13 points and two red zone opportunities as 2.5-point dogs.

More concerning? Denver remains at home following a victory while the Rams are forced to travel on a short week.

I simultaneously question Denver’s offense. The team achieved its success through the air against an overrated secondary. Rushing, the offense averaged 3.7 yards per attempt.

Los Angeles possesses a strong group of corners to shut down Denver’s passing game. As 2.5-point underdogs in Kansas City, the Broncos managed only 10 points.

Accordingly, I predict this game stays under a lofty benchmark.

Giants vs Titans Prediction: Tennessee Titans Spread (+3, -105)

Based on the Titans’ strong rushing metrics against the Eagles and the Giants’ injuries in tandem with a poor spot, my Giants vs Titans prediction is the Titans Spread (+3, -105).

Jaxson Dart is hurt….again. Jameis Winston will get the nod on Sunday, potentially without a full-strength Malik Nabers.

They’ll face a questionable Titans defense on short rest after returning from Los Angeles after MNF. It leaves me concerned they’re currently sitting on a key number despite that spot.

Tennessee fell in dramatic fashion to the Eagles in Week 2. While the game featured some luck for the Titans, the offense impressed me with their ability to run the ball.

In Week 1, the Titans recorded a -0.096 rush EPA per play and 40% rushing success rate. In Week 2, the unit improved to a +0.048 EPA and 42.9% rushing success rate.

Through two games, Brian Daboll’s rushing attack ranks 15th in DVOA, seventh in EPA and 11th in rushing success rate.

New York showed weakness against the run on Monday against the Rams. Dating back to last season, the defense has struggled immensely to stop the run.

Including games with Dexter Lawrence, the Giants ranked 32nd in rush defense DVOA last year.

Some historical trends favor the spot on Tennessee, too. Since 2003, three-point home favorites off a road MNF game are 8-20 ATS when the opponent has a full week between games.

Additionally, 0-2 underdogs in Week 3 playing a team off a loss are 32-17-1 ATS (65%) since 2006. That sample includes a 15-2 ATS run since 2018.

Lions vs Jets Prediction: Detroit Lions Over 27.5 Points (-105)

Based on the Jets’ lack of experience against quality offenses this season and Detroit’s extra rest to prepare, my Lions vs Jets prediction is the Lions Over 27.5 Points (-105).

The time has come to sell Aaron Glenn’s defense against his former employer. After allowing 10 to Tennessee and 20 to Green Bay, the Jets travel to face a strong Lions offense on extra rest.

Even as underdogs, the Lions completely dominated Buffalo’s defense. Most of it came in garbage time after the Bills built a huge lead, but the Lions played well through two games.

Detroit ranks 10th in expected points added per play vs. eighth in offensive success rate. Most of their success has come through the air, where they rank seventh in EPA vs. 11th in success rate.

The Jets rank second and fifth in defensive EPA and success rate. But against a good Packers offense in the rain, the Jets regressed from their Week 1 performance in Nashville.

In Week 1, the Jets posted a -0.152 dropback EPA on defense against Cam Ward. In Week 2, the unit regressed to a +0.055 dropback EPA rating.

Weather won’t impact the game in Detroit. It should lead to some regression against a comparable opponent to Green Bay.

Last year, the Packers (42.6%) outpaced the Lions (31.8%) by two spots in dropback EPA.

Even excluding the time without Ben Johnson, Detroit cleared this benchmark 10 times in their last 20 games. However, the clearance rate at home rises to five times in nine games.

Given those factors, I predict the Lions clear this benchmark for a third straight game.

Bills vs Chargers Prediction: Buffalo Bills Over 29.5 Points (-110)

Based on the Chargers’ lack of defensive experience against good offenses and Buffalo’s extra rest for Sunday’s game, my Bills vs Chargers prediction is the Bills Over 29.5 Points (-110).

This rates out as one of the negative regression spots for the Chargers defense. Since appointing Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers have almost never allowed over 30 points.

Except they’ve also rarely played against competent offenses. Over the last two years, the defense played a bottom-25% strength of schedule in terms of opposing offenses.

It helps paint a picture of a team that succeeded due to its opponents rather than any actual quality. Accordingly, no one should be surprised that only five opponents scored 30+ in the last two years and two games.

Now the Chargers defense (27th in defensive DVOA) plays a powerful Buffalo offense (1st in offensive DVOA), per FTN Fantasy.

More concerning for defensive coordinator Chris O’Leary’s unit? Buffalo will have a rest advantage over the Chargers after playing last Thursday night.

Irrespective of opponent, Buffalo has consistently racked up points in the Joe Brady era.

Including two 30+ point outputs this season, the Bills scored 30 or more 25 times over their last 41 games (playoffs included).

Buffalo possesses a sizable advantage over the secondary in this spot. The aerial attack ranks first in DVOA, whereas Los Angeles ranks 30th in the corresponding defensive category.

Accordingly, I predict the Bills clear a lofty line for the third straight game on extra rest.

Buccaneers vs Vikings Prediction: Buccaneers Moneyline (+105)

Based on Minnesota’s inability to move the ball and Tampa Bay’s misleading offensive record, my Buccaneers vs Vikings prediction is the Buccaneers Moneyline (+105).

Even in Week 1, Minnesota’s offense put forth horrible offensive metrics. As a home favorite, the offense recorded a -17.7% offensive DVOA rating and a -18.8% pass offense DVOA rating.

A lot will have to change in order for Minnesota to win as road favorites. Tampa Bay ranks 14th in rush defense DVOA compared to 25th in pass defense DVOA.

Kyler Murray returns after a week’s absence with a concussion. Even if the former Cardinal entered the game at full health, I lack trust in him as a road favorite.

Plus, it’s my perspective the Buccaneers offense is better than perceived. Turnovers harmed the unit in Cincinnati in a close defeat.

In Week 2, the offense converted only 1-of-4 red zone trips into a touchdown. Excluding turnovers, the offense ranks 12th in offensive success rate, including eighth via the run.

Minnesota beat the Bears in Week 2, but it relied on turnovers to make it happen.

A blocked field goal try that would have tied the game and a fumble recovery at the one are not sustainable ways of winning.

Given those factors, I predict the Buccaneers win in a desperate spot at home.

NFL Week 3 Predictions By Public Consensus

As of Sunday morning, five teams received at least 70% of bets to cover the spread in Week 3:

• Seattle Seahawks (-8.5) at Washington Commanders: 78% of bets placed
• Detroit Lions (-6.5) vs New York Jets: 76% of bets placed
• Buffalo Bills (-7) vs Los Angeles Chargers: 76% of bets placed
• Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) vs New England Patriots: 75% of bets placed
• Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Chicago Bears: 72% of bets placed

Three additional teams cleared 65% of bets placed to cover the spread, including the Bengals and Chiefs. Get up-to-date NFL public betting data on all Week 3 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages.