The Chiefs (6-2) visit the Falcons (3-6) in Week 10 on Nov. 15, 2026, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET (10:00 a.m. PT), with the game airing on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Below, bettors can find NFL odds and a Falcons vs Chiefs prediction for their Week 10 matchup.
Falcons vs Chiefs Odds: Spread, Moneyline & Total
Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction
Assuming Patrick Mahomes starts for the Chiefs on Sunday in Atlanta, my Falcons vs Chiefs prediction is the Chiefs Over 25.5 Points (+100), given Atlanta’s problematic defensive record.
In his Monday press conference, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said Mahomes was “day-to-day” with an elbow injury. If he plays, it gives Kansas City the opportunity to dominate offensively.
Atlanta’s defense ranks 10th in DVOA, but a big portion of their record came against bad offenses. In recent games against better units, Geoff Ulbrich’s unit struggled to get stops.
In Weeks 6, 7 and 9, the Falcons closed as an underdog against the Bears, 49ers and Bengals. Every single opponent found success moving the ball, especially on the ground.
That’s a problem against the Chiefs, which ranks sixth in rush offense DVOA. It’s a better ranking than the Bears, who notched five red zone chances and 31 points.
Cincinnati also reached 30+ against the Falcons with four red zone chances. A Mike Evans-less 49ers notched only two red zone chances and 20 points, but four turnovers killed drives.
Consistent throughout those matchups is that the Falcons defense allowed opponents to move the ball. Here are the offensive success rates of those three teams
- Week 6 vs Chicago: 49.3%
- Week 7 vs San Francisco: 60.7%
- Week 9 vs Cincinnati: 55.4%
Most concerning about last week? The Bengals achieved a 45.5% rushing success rate against Atlanta. Up until that game, the Bengals recorded a 41.4% rushing success rate.
Kansas City sits ahead of the Bengals both in rush offense DVOA and rushing success rate for the season. Entering this game, the Chiefs rank fourth in rush success rate (46.2%).
When you add in the Jessie Bates departure on Atlanta’s defense, it’s a lot to overcome against a strong offense. However, I become less confident if Justin Fields starts for Kansas City.
Wait for injury news, but it’s a look at the Chiefs’ team total or a pass on Sunday’s game.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
